Top Prop Bets for Week 11: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 11: #1

Jets RB Michael Carter under 44.5 rushing yards – DraftKings Sportsbook (-125)

My top play of the day is the Patriots defense to hold Michael Carter to fewer than 44.5 rushing yards. Carter has exceeded that number only twice all season, once in their opening week against the Baltimore Ravens and again in their last game against the Buffalo Bills.

Rookie Breece Hall mostly carried the load for the Jets from weeks four through six, before going down with a season-ending knee injury in Week Seven. The Jets quickly brought in James Robinson ahead of the trade deadline to help fill the void. In the first Pats/Jets outing, Carter toted the rock seven times to Robinson’s five, after having only a few days to learn the playbook.

In Week Nine against the Buffalo Bills, Robinson’s usage saw an increase to 13 carries, already outpacing Carter’s 12. This sure looks like a backfield that is shifting and will soon see Robinson assume the Breece Hall role and Carter as a change-of-pace option. With the Jets also coming off of their bye week, Robinson has had plenty of time to grow more comfortable with the Jets offense.

On top of that, Zach Wilson threw the ball a season-high 41 times in the first game against the Patriots. That may again be the Jets’ approach on the road in a must-have divisional game. The Patriots defense has allowed an average of 84 yards per game to running backs this season, and only 49 to the Jets a mere two games ago.

Even if the Jets improve upon that last outing, I envision Robinson getting the lion’s share of running back carries and the Patriots holding Carter to fewer than 44.5 rushing yards, with relative ease.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.