Top Prop Bets for Week 11: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 11: #2
Jets WR Garrett Wilson at least 5 receptions – DraftKings Sportsbook (-140)
The rationale for this wager is almost identical to that of the Meyers bet, but in the opposite direction. Just as Meyers is the highest-volume pass catcher for the Patriots, Garrett Wilson is that guy for the Jets. Corey Davis has been ruled out for the third straight game, so Wilson will once again operate as the team’s number one receiver (likely drawing Jalen Mills on most plays).
Since assuming that role, Garrett Wilson has really come into his own. With rookies especially, recent results can be a great indicator of a receiver growing more comfortable in an offense and a matured chemistry with their quarterback. Wilson actually had a ton of early looks, with 18 receptions on 33 targets in the first three games of his career. That said, those three games were played with Joe Flacco under center and a substantially different offensive approach.
Flacco threw the ball 59, 44, and 52 times in those three games, and pass-catching volume was inevitable. When Zach Wilson returned in Week Four, the offense became more run-focused. Garrett Wilson saw only 19 targets over his next four games, notching 10 grabs for 100 yards.
In the last two games, however, Wilson has seen the pendulum swing back in a positive direction, with 16 targets, 14 receptions, and 207 yards. In Week Eight, Wilson had six catches for 115 yards against the Patriots defense. He ranks second in the NFL in combined matchup win percentage (53.62%) among wideouts with at least 100 matchups against man or zone coverage. His quarterback also looks his way on 58.6% of the routes he runs.
Coach Belichick will naturally do his best to take away the Jets’ top weapon, but the high floor of targets makes me feel comfortable with this play. I would be thrilled if the defense limits any explosive long gainers from Wilson, but I do expect at least five grabs in the short to mid passing game.