Patriots red zone woes continue in victory over the Colts

A win is a win in the NFL and the New England Patriots now have more wins than losses for the first time this season, defeating the Colts 26-3 on Sunday. After a 1-3 start, the Patriots have seemingly righted the ship as they head into their bye week at 5-4 and in the middle of the playoff hunt in the AFC. The defense and special teams have put the team in great position for a second half push but in order for the Patriots to make the playoffs for a second straight year, the offense is going to need to be better especially in the red zone.

Once again, it was Nick Folk who generated most of the points for the Patriots on Sunday. Not exactly something you want to see out of your offense, but points are points. The problem is that like the previous eight games, the offense continues to stall the closer they get to the end zone, so they need to rely on the steady right leg of Folk. The Patriots scored one touchdown in their two red zone trips on Sunday and that was only because they were set up at the two-yard line after Jonathan Jones blocked a punt.

The Patriots rank 29th in the NFL, scoring touchdowns on just 46% of their trips inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. That would be their worst mark since 2003, when ironically, they went 14-2 and won a Super Bowl. After the win, quarterback Mac Jones pointed to the issues in the red zone during his press conference saying, “obviously, we want to score more points in the red zone.” What has contributed to the problems in the red zone? After going back and looking at all red zone possessions using Pro Football Reference and NFL+, it’s been a combination of play calling and personnel.

In the Patriots 26 trips to the red zone this season, they have called for a run on first down 19 times (73%), a ridiculously high percentage. Maybe this has to do with where they are on the field, but it is much higher than their typical percentage on first down (58.3%, 140/240). I imagine NFL teams are able to see these statistics and gear up for the run. Tendencies like this may also be why Colts players were calling out plays before the snap on Sunday afternoon.

Tendencies aside, the actual play calls themselves have been puzzling. The Patriots have Rhamondre Stevenson, a big physical running back who has shown ability to shed tackles and pick up yards after contact. First and goal at the two-yard line, does Matt Patricia call for a handoff to Stevenson? Nope. The Patriots go shotgun with three wide receivers and call a running play for 5’6 JJ Taylor. Maybe he thought the Colts wouldn’t be able to see him behind the line? Anyway, the play went for a loss of a yard. However, the play calling is only one part of it as the personnel has also been to blame.

Another big reason why the Patriots have not been successful in the red zone is because of their inability to run the football. The offensive line has been inconsistent all season long but has really struggled the past few weeks as David Andrews has been out with a concussion and rookie Cole Strange has been benched twice. Add in the penalty issues of Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown and it’s an unmitigated disaster. The Patriots have called 38 designed runs in the red zone and have run for a grand total of 82 yards (2.2 yards per rush).

Now, you wouldn’t expect your yards per rush to be all that high when you are in the red zone so that’s not the biggest issue. The issue is that 15 of the 38 runs (39.4%) have gone for either zero or negative yardage. That’s not going to get it done and if the Patriots are starting by running over 70% of the time, it’s a big reason why they are usually in second and long situations.

So, what can change? First, the Patriots need to get healthy on the line and block better. That will cure a lot of issues, not just in the red zone. Matt Patricia needs to get more creative and less predictable. DeVante Parker was supposed to be a big body that could go up and get the ball in the red zone, but he has been ineffective and injured. Maybe incorporate your two tight ends? Last year, the Patriots tight ends caught 10 touchdowns in the red zone including nine to Hunter Henry alone. So far this year? Zero.