In a Monday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears, there are three player prop bets that stand out.
Alright Patriots fans, I need to come clean. There are a few things you should know about me.
Firstly, I’m one of those people who likes to cross things off lists. Hell, I’ll put something on a to-do list after I’ve already done it, just to cross it out. I’m task-based… or something? I’m sure there’s a word for that, but I’m no psychologist (science welcome in the comments).
Secondly, if there’s anything I like more than watching football, it’s watching football after placing a wager or two (or six or ten). And lastly, I am still a pen-and-paper bettor. I write them all down on lined paper and mark off my results as the day goes on.
Let’s paint this picture. Because of my aforementioned condition, I’ve become quite fond of player prop bets. Damien Harris carries? Tally, tally, tally with my pen and paper. There’s an every-play engagement there that you can’t quite achieve any other way. Pour yourself a drink and you’ve really got the hedonist dream.
I digress. My kids call these “tally bets.” Nothing beats good parenting, am I right? And when you parlay a few of these together, my friends call that a “Jonny Parlay” (hence the Twitter handle – @Jonny_Parlay).
Now that we have that out of the way, you can expect a weekly article of this nature before our beloved Patriots take the field.
Here are my top prop bets for this week’s game against the Chicago Bears.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 7: #3
Rhamondre Stevenson over 13.5 receiving yards (-120) – DraftKings Sportsbook
I love this number. Rhamondre Stevenson is a threat in both the run and pass game, and if he gets a checkdown in open space, he’s inclined to hit this number on one reception. He has eclipsed 13.5 receiving yards in his last four games, and Chicago has allowed other dual-threat backs to do damage in the passing game. Yes, Damien Harris is expected to be back in the lineup, but I don’t expect New England to dial back Stevenson’s usage much, if at all.
Last week, Chicago allowed 18 receiving yards to Commanders’ running back Antonio Gibson, in a similar backfield timeshare. Before that, they allowed 48 to a Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison duo. Saquon Barkley also had his turn in Week Four, with 16 through the air.
I expect at least three receptions for Mondre and would not be surprised to see him turn in at least 25 yards in the passing game.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 7: #2
Justin Fields over .5 interceptions (-175) – DraftKings Sportsbook
Now I know the odds on this one aren’t as lucrative as the others, but some money is better than no money, and this wager is a prime candidate to be added as a leg in a player prop parlay. Justin Fields, tantalizing athleticism aside, has a knack for throwing interceptions. In some ways, it’s hard to blame the guy.
The Chicago Bears are fairly weak on the offensive side of the ball, and Fields is doing all he can do to keep them competitive. He’s trying to fit the ball into tight windows, throwing off-balance and on the move, and just trying to make something happen. Excuses aside, there’s just not a good outlook for him when he takes the field Monday night.
Fields has thrown five interceptions in six games. The Patriots defense is coming into Week Seven with six picks in six games, including four in the last three games. Jalen Mills is looking much better than he did to start the year, last week holding Cleveland wide receiver Amari Cooper in check, and notching his second pick of the year.
Fourth-round rookie Jack Jones has been a revelation, with two interceptions himself. One was a key pick-6 off Aaron Rodgers, putting the Patriots in a competitive position in that matchup. The other was a gorgeous toe-tapper against Detroit in the redzone.
Kyle Dugger is a one-man wrecking crew, and Matt Judon has been pressuring the quarterback at a scary rate. Coming into Week 7 just a half sack out of the NFL lead, there’s no question he will be coming after Justin Fields and putting him in position to make costly mistakes. Look for an easy one interception from Fields, and, frankly, I expect two or three.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 7: #1
Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions (+110) – DraftKings Sportsbook
This Jakobi Meyers player prop is my favorite prop of the evening. Meyers has really come into his own as the number one receiving option for both Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. He leads the Patriots in targets (31), receptions (24), and receiving yards (321), and always seems to be open when the Patriots need to move the chains. I am taking this prop regardless of who starts at QB tomorrow but if Mac returns to the lineup, I’m even more sold on this one.
While he has had two games this year with only four receptions, this matchup warrants a closer look. The last time Meyers and Mac were on the field together was Week Two against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In that game, he was targeted a whopping 13 times, hauling in nine receptions for 95 yards. Mac could be looking his way early and often, and in his first game back, Meyers would help him get in a rhythm. Meanwhile, if Zappe is at the helm, Meyers’ output of 11 receptions in the last two outings is not discouraging in the least bit.
The Bears, as a unit, are not terrible against the pass. They have allowed the second fewest number of receptions in the NFL (106), and the third fewest receiving yards. That said, Jakobi will operate predominantly out of the slot, where he works almost 70% of the time.
Who will the Bears put on him? Enter the second round rookie Kyler Gordon, who has looked mostly overwhelmed this season. Gordon enters Monday night’s matchup allowing an 80% catch rate and 126.0 passer rating.
I expect Meyers to create separation with a crisp route tree, en route to six or seven receptions and 75+ yards.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.