Top Prop Bets for Week 9: New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts

Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 9: #3 and #2

Colts WR Alec Pierce over 2.5 receptions (-120) and over 28.5 receiving yards (-115) – DraftKings Sportsbook

We’ve got a two-for-one here. Colts second round rookie receiver Alec Pierce has had a very nice start to his NFL career. With 38 targets in seven games played, he has hauled in 24 receptions for 373 yards and one touchdown. Operating almost exclusively as an outside option, Pierce has an average depth of target of 12.66 yards, ranking him 10th in the league among wideouts with the same number of targets or more.

Not the biggest threat to do his damage after the catch, Pierce is productive by running a solid volume of medium to long routes. Excluding Week One where he posted a goose-egg, Pierce has had three or more receptions in each of his other six games played, averaging 62 yards per game since Week Three. His lowest total came in Week Seven where he totaled 37 yards on three grabs.

I do recognize that he may be in store for a regression the rest of the way with Sam Ehlinger under center, but last week it didn’t quite seem that way. While Ehlinger only attempted 23 passes, five of those went to Pierce, who had three receptions for 65 yards on the day. The Patriots defense, while opportunistic in the pass game, do give up their share of yardage through the air. The Patriots are third in the league in interceptions with 10, but rank 20th in passing yardage allowed. In Week Eight against the Jets, the Patriots somehow allowed Zach Wilson to throw for 355 yards (on a less than 50% completion percentage, in classic Wilson fashion).

With Jonathan Taylor set to miss this week’s game, Michael Pittman remains as the Colts’ most dangerous offensive weapon. As such, Bill Belichick will undoubtedly scheme to take him out of the game. With attention on Pittman, I expect five or six targets for Pierce, resulting in three or four receptions for 50 yards or so.