Fresh off back-to-back wins, the Patriots are back in the hunt and will look to go over. 500 when they host the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. Prior to the season, this game was hailed as a matchup between two second-year quarterback in Mac Jones and Justin Fields but both have gotten off to poor starts in 2022. It remains to be seen who will start at quarterback for the Patriots (all signs are pointing to Jones being back) but the Bears have such a poor rush defense that it might not matter.
Defensively, the Bears rank 29th in the NFL as they have surrendered 978 yards on the ground through six games (163 yards per game). Conversely, their passing defense ranks second as teams have not had to rely on the pass as much. The Bears are pretty much the same on offense: a strong running game and not much to write home about regarding the passing attack. Their 737 receiving yards are dead last in the league and their wide receivers have combined for only 553 yards through the air. Here are the key matchups to watch as the Patriots try to go for their third victory in a row.
Key matchups for the Patriots in week seven
Patriots front seven vs. Chicago running game
Stop me if you’ve heard this here before, but the Patriots are playing another strong running team. Add the Bears to the list that includes Baltimore, Green Bay, Detroit and Cleveland as they rank 2nd in the NFL with 1,024 rushing yards. Through six games, really the only threat on the Chicago offense has been the rushing attack as quarterback Justin Fields averages only 19 pass attempts per game (31st in the NFL) and completes just 54.8% of them. The area that could hurt the Patriots is if they are not able to keep contain on Fields as he has rushed for 282 yards so far.
It seems the Patriots have fixed their run defense over the past two weeks after getting shredded by Baltimore and Green Bay. Last week, they were able to hold the NFL’s leading rusher Nick Chubb to just 56 yards on the ground and only gave up 70 for the day. The play along the defensive line, especially with Davon Godchaux and Carl Davis has improved in the absence of Lawrence Guy and has allowed linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley and safety Kyle Dugger to come up and make plays. If the Patriots can win the battle at the line of scrimmage, it will go a long way for their chances on Monday.
Key matchups for the Patriots in week seven
Rhamondre Stevenson vs Cleveland front seven
Stevenson has truly become the number one back in New England over the past two weeks as he has put up 237 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Of course, this has come with the injury to fellow back Damien Harris and the two rookie backs Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong have yet to emerge. Damien Harris was listed as a full participant in practice, but I expect Stevenson to continue to take the lion’s share of carries once again this week.
The Bears have surrendered at least 117 rushing yards in five of their six games so far this year, giving up 203 to Green Bay in week two and a whopping 262 to the Giants in week four. After a good day on the ground in Cleveland, the Patriots offensive line has risen to the third spot in PFF’s rankings of all 32 units. If weather is a factor, and rain is in the forecast for Foxboro on Monday night, I can see the Patriots keeping the ball on the ground and a big night from Stevenson.
Key matchups for the Patriots in week seven
Jalen Mills vs. Darnell Mooney
I mentioned how inept the Bears’ passing attack is but if there is one person for the Patriots defense to really focus on, it’s Darnell Mooney. A 1,000-yard receiver a year ago, Mooney has picked up 237 of his 241 yards over the past four weeks after a slow start in the first two weeks of the season. Another reason to focus on Mooney: he has over 100 more receiving yards than the next highest Chicago receiver (Dante Pettis, 135 yards). In last week’s Thursday night loss to Washington, Mooney saw a season-high 12 targets from Fields (of his 27 pass attempts) as he is the lone big passing threat for them right now.
After struggling to start the season both with performance and injury, Mills had a bounce back game last week in Cleveland. He was able to hold Browns receiver Amari Cooper in check as he caught just four of 12 targets, and his touchdown grab came with Myles Bryant in coverage. Mills gave up just three receptions on eight targets and added his second interception of the season on an underthrow from Jacoby Brissett. If Mills is able to shut down Mooney on Monday night, that will erase their passing threat and allow the rest of the defense to focus on stopping the run.