Five bold predictions for Patriots visit to Green Bay

Another week and another tough beat on my five bold predictions for the Patriots as I went 2-3 for a second consecutive week. This time it was the Matthew Judon sack total (at least two) that kept me up at night as he recorded a sack of Lamar Jackson on the first play of the game before being shut out the rest of the way. I guess I should’ve gone with Deatrich Wise. Jabrill Peppers also finished one tackle off of the team lead, so we were two plays away from going 4-1. The one that didn’t come close was Mac Jones throwing for at least two touchdowns. He did complete one pass in the endzone but that was to a Baltimore Raven.

This week the Patriots head to Lambeau Field for only the fourth time in their history to take on the Green Bay Packers. Here are my five bold predictions for what might happen during the game on Sunday afternoon.

Five bold predictions for Patriots in week four

Rhamondre Stevenson runs for over 100 yards

The Patriots do not have a 100-yard rusher through their first three games of the season, but I can see that changing this week. A physical runner with good vision, Stevenson had his best game of the young season a week ago leading the team with 73 yards on 12 carries. His touches have gone up each game this year and he leads the team averaging a healthy five yards per carry. With the status of Mac Jones up in the air, I can see the Patriots leaning on the running game this week.

Stevenson also gets a poor rush defense in the Packers to try and take advantage of so I don’t think he will even need a full workload to pick up 100 yards. In week two, Chicago running back David Montgomery was able to pick up 122 yards on just 15 carries against a defense that gives up 4.9 yards per rush, 19th in the NFL. Since the Patriots have two good backs with Stevenson and Damien Harris, it can be hard for one to outpace the other but I think Stevenson is trending upwards heading into week four.

Five bold predictions for Patriots in week four

Patriots pick off Aaron Rodgers

Because of the rotating schedule, the Patriots have faced Aaron Rodgers only three times in his career and one of those was a relief appearance. Rodgers missed the 2010 matchup at Gillette Stadium with an injury as Matt Flynn filled in for a game mostly remembered by a kickoff return by an offensive lineman.

In those three games against the Patriots, Rodgers has never thrown an interception which shouldn’t be all too surprising as he has the lowest interception percentage in NFL history. However, I think the Patriots can get one this Sunday. Rodgers is dealing with a young receiver group, and someone is due to either run a wrong route or drop one into the lap of a Patriot.

Five bold predictions for Patriots in week four

Kyle Dugger leads the team in tackles

How much did the Patriots defense miss Dugger last week? The Ravens were able to put the game away on the ground as they ran for 188 yards, over 100 of that coming in the second half.  Dugger is listed as questionable but has practiced each day this week and is trending towards being back on the field Sunday afternoon.

When you think of the Packers over the past 15 years, you think Aaron Rodgers and the passing game however, this season is off to a different start. The Packers have struggled to put up points and most of their damage has come on the ground, an area where the return of Dugger should pay off for the Patriots. In the passing game, Rodgers has targeted both of the running backs quite a bit so Dugger should be able to make plays there as well.

Five bold predictions for Patriots in week four

Hunter Henry catches at least three passes

The absence of Hunter Henry in the passing game has been a confusing development so far in the 2022 season for the Patriots. A season ago, Henry finished second on the team with 75 targets and reeled in a career-high nine touchdowns as he developed a good connection with quarterback Mac Jones. So far this year, Henry is eighth on the team with 5 targets, or one more than Ty Montgomery who has only played in one game.

Of all tight ends who have run at least 50 routes, Henry ranks dead last in target percentage (7%) but I think that can change this week. With Brian Hoyer under center, I can see him taking less chances down the field than Jones and settling for easy completions underneath against the Green Bay zone. Tight end Cameron Brate of the Buccaneers was able to haul in five grabs last week and I think the Patriots finally get Henry going in week four.

Five bold predictions for Patriots in week four

Jakobi Meyers leads the team in receptions

Another player who should be back on the field this week is wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, although he too is listed as questionable. Right now, everyone is high on DeVante Parker after his big game last week, but I don’t foresee him replicating that performance against a stout secondary. Instead, like Henry, I can see Hoyer leaning on Meyers to pick soft spots in the Green Bay zone.

Although he missed last week, Meyers still leads the team with 19 targets and 13 receptions while his yards per target is 7.9 compared to Kendrick Bourne (12.8), Nelson Agholor (12.8) and Parker (11.8). I don’t think Hoyer will take those deep shots and Meyers will be able to make an impact in the passing game.

Editor’s Note: Jakobi Meyers has been ruled out for this game.  This article was released before the news broke.