I had much better success in my bold predictions last week than I did in week one, but there’s one I’m still not over. I said the Patriots would rush for over 125 yards, and thanks to their final drive it looked like I was on my way to going 3-2 in my predictions. A five-yard carry from Damien Harris on third and three clinched the win and gave the Patriots 134 rushing yards at the time. However, they needed three kneel downs to run out the clock and Mac Jones inexplicably lost nine yards on those three plays to bring the total under 124. Pain.
This week the Patriots are finally inside Gillette Stadium as they welcome the Baltimore Ravens for the home opener. Here are my five bold predictions for what might happen during the game on Sunday afternoon.
Five bold predictions for Patriots in week three
Matthew Judon records two sacks
After signing a four-year, $56 million deal during free agency in 2021, this will be the first time Judon will get to face his former team. Judon has picked up where he left off in his Pro Bowl season of a year ago when he registered a career-high 12.5 sacks as he has recorded a sack in each of the first two games of 2022. The Ravens are battling injuries along the offensive line, and it is unclear if tackle Ronnie Stanley (ankle) will be able to go on Sunday. Even if he is able to go, I like Judon to be able to cause havoc in the backfield and take down Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson at least twice.
Five bold predictions for Patriots in week three
Patriots rush for 130 yards
Yes, I’m going even higher than I did last week on this number for a few reasons. One, I feel like the offensive line may have found their rhythm, especially towards the end of the game last week. Two, the passing offense continues to struggl,e and with receiver Jakobi Meyers unable to practice so far this week, it could mean even more reason to rely on the running game.
This is a Ravens defense that ranks 8th in the NFL, allowing only 84.5 yards per game on the ground. However, stats can be deceiving, and those numbers are mostly the byproduct of the Ravens jumping out to big leads and opponents having to throw the ball (the Ravens are last in the NFL against the pass). However, teams are still averaging 4.8 yards per rush against this defense and as I think the Patriots will be able to keep this game closer, I can see them gaining yards on the ground.
Five bold predictions for Patriots in week three
Mac Jones throws for at least two touchdown passes
Mac Jones has gotten off to a slow start in 2022 as the receiving group continues to struggle and he adjusts to a new offensive system. Jones has completed only 64.6% of his passes and has just two touchdowns against two interceptions through two weeks. While I think the Patriots might try to lean on the running game, I do think that they will take their shots against a Ravens secondary that is banged up and inexperienced.
Last week we got a quick glimpse into what the receivers can do when Jones took a shot downfield to Nelson Agholor. After the success Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had last week, I think the Patriots can take advantage, especially if they are able to utilize play-action. I could see Jones taking a deep shot and I can also see him finally looking for a tight end or DeVante Parker in the redzone.
Since the Baltimore Ravens’ rush defense has been very good through two games, the team might not be able to rely as much on Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Perhaps this is the game that the passing attack gets moving some. DeVante Parker has been a non-factor thus far, and I think Mac Jones should try and get him involved more on Sunday.
Five bold predictions for Patriots in week three
Mark Andrews leads the Ravens in receiving
In 2021, Mark Andrews solidified himself as one of the premier tight ends in the NFL, as he was named first-team All-Pro and made his second Pro Bowl team. Andrews is off to another great start in 2022 as he has hauled in 14 receptions for 156 yards and one touchdown. Even after trading Hollywood Brown to the Arizona Cardinals during the offseason, the Ravens have two good receivers in Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay to help lead the offense.
Duvernay is also off to a big start in 2022, but suffered a concussion late in last week’s loss to the Dolphins, so he may be limited this week. I can see the Patriots trying to shut down Bateman on the outside, leaving Andrews open to take advantage of a defense that may be without safety Kyle Dugger (knee). Jackson has targeted Andrews on 31% off his attempts through two weeks and I think that will be the case again on Sunday.
Five bold predictions for Patriots in week three
Jabrill Peppers leads the Patriots in tackles
Kyle Dugger was expected to make a huge leap in his third year, but the safety had to leave last week’s win over the Steelers with a knee injury. He has yet to practice this week and that leaves a big void on the Patriots defense. Fortunately, the safety position was one of the team’s strengths heading into the season, and Jabrill Peppers inserted himself pretty nicely after Dugger went down a week ago.
Peppers only saw 17 snaps on defense (29% of the total snaps) but was able to make three tackles during that time. With the Steelers driving in New England territory in the third quarter, Peppers was able to make tackles on back-to-back plays, including a big stop for no gain on third down, holding the Steelers to a field goal. With a full week of practice in a larger role, I expect Peppers to have a much bigger impact this week.