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Breaking down PFF’s bold predictions for the 2022 Patriots

By Lou Scataglia

Oct 24, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Damien Harris (37) runs with the ball during the first half against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 24, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Damien Harris (37) runs with the ball during the first half against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports /
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In August, PFF released their bold predictions for each NFL team in 2022. What did they have to say about the New England Patriots?  It doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of people who are banking on the Patriots to be a playoff team in 2022.  Their promising 2021 season has all but disappeared from the memories of some.

PFF laid out their bold predictions for each NFL team in 2022, and some of them weren’t kind to the Patriots.  New England does have a talented roster and some very good players on both sides of the ball, but it might not be enough in the loaded AFC.

PFF Bold Prediction #1: This will be the worst defense Belichick has ever had

Their first bold prediction is extremely bold.  Saying that the 2022 Patriots will be the worst defense Bill Belichick has ever had is quite the statement, especially when you consider just how good his defenses have been over the years.

PFF noted that there was only one player in 2021 on the Patriots’ defense who earned at least an 80.0 grade, and that was safety Adrian Phillips.  The worse defense will put increased pressure on Mac Jones, according to the article.  It’s a take that may not hold up, though.  New England’s defense is returning a ton of the same faces from 2021, where they were one of the league’s best, but only time will tell.

PFF Bold Prediction #2: Mac Jones doesn’t improve in year 2

This prediction is in the same ballpark as others.  Some people have said that Mac Jones perhaps won’t improve at all.  Some have said that he may improve, but not as much as he could.  Most, if not all of these predictions fall onto the team not employing a true offensive coordinator, and likely leaving the playcalling duties to Matt Patricia, a defensive coach.

I can see a scenario were Jones does improve for the Patriots in 2022, but not as much as he could have.  I personally could not disagree more with PFF’s prediction that he won’t improve at all.  The second year leap we’ve seen from quarterbacks in the modern era is rather constant, and I don’t think Mac Jones will be an exception to that rule.

PFF Bold Prediction #3: Damien Harris will have 1,200 rushing yards

PFF digs up some of their own data for this prediction.  They make a few notes.  Firstly, they note that the Patriots’ offensive line is built to run the ball, which is true.  They also dig up that Mike Onwenu, who is essentially replacing Shaq Mason along the offensive line, has a run blocking grade of at least 84.9 in each year he’s been in the NFL.

Cole Strange is also a good run blocker as well.  PFF finishes this prediction by mentioning Damien Harris’ 90.7 rushing grade over the last two seasons, which puts him behind elite running backs Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor.

This prediction also makes sense when you look at Harris’ rushing production in the NFL so far.  It’s gone up every season, and he’s gotten better every season, so perhaps this is the year that Damien Harris rushes for over 1,000 yards for the Patriots.

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