Ceiling and floor predictions for the 2022 New England Patriots

The New England Patriots 2022 schedule is tough. What would be reasonable “ceiling” and “floor” predictions for the upcoming season?

Most die-hard fans would, for the most, part, have no issue predicting a big season from their favorite team.  It’s natural, as we all want our favorite teams to succeed every year.  However, sometimes it’s good to simply look at the situations from a neutral perspective.  In this piece, I want to try and do this for the Patriots and their upcoming season.

Their schedule is tough, and it is going to be hard to reach the 10 wins they earned last season.

However, anything is possible, so I would not be entirely surprised if the team won double digit games in 2022, and I also wouldn’t be surprised if the team finished with a losing record.

The roster might be slightly less talented than it was in 2021.  Departures of JC Jackson and Shaw Mason will hurt, but acquisitions of DeVante Parker, and encouraging second year players like Rhamondre Stevenson and Christian Barmore might offset certain losses.

So, what is a good “ceiling” and “floor” prediction for the Patriots in 2022?

Let’s break this into two halves, since the Patriots do have a bye week in the middle of the season.

Their first nine games until their bye are against, in order, the Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Packers Lions, Browns, Bears, Jets, and Colts.

Let’s talk about their ceiling first.  Well, I think they are a safe bet to win against the Lions, Bears, and Jets.  I also think wins against the Dolphins and Steelers are likely, especially with quarterback questions for both teams, and since it’s early in the season, there might be more room for error.

Games against the Ravens and Packers I think are both going to be losses either way.  I just think both teams are simply too talented.

The last teams from the first nine are the Browns and Colts.  Well, if Deshaun Watson is suspended for a period of time, he may not play in their October 16th matchup.  Even if he is in, I could see the Patriots winning here, but I am thinking Watson will be suspended for a while, so in our ceiling prediction, we’ll give the Patriots the win.

I also could get on board with a win against Matt Ryan and the Colts on November 6th.  I do not think the Colts upgraded at quarterback that much, and I would bet on Mac Jones being able to outduel Matt Ryan in New England.

So, our ceiling prediction would give the Patriots a 7-2 record.

The floor prediction isn’t so kind.  In this prediction, I would only feel comfortable predicting wins against the Steelers, Lions, Bears, and Jets.

Games against the Dolphins, Browns, and Colts would go the other way.  On paper, the Patriots match up closely with these three teams, so a loss to either or all three would not be surprising.

Our floor record prediction for the first nine games would be 4-5.

Now, onto the final eight games, which are against the Jets, Vikings, Bills (2x), Cardinals, Raiders, and Bengals.

For our ceiling prediction, I would expect the Patriots to take care of business against the Jets and Vikings.  I could also see a win against the Cardinals and Dolphins as well.

However, I am not comfortable with the Patriots being able to win against the Bills, Raiders, or Bengals.  The Bills are perhaps the most favored team to win the Super Bowl, the Bengals just made the Super Bowl, and the Raiders have quite a bit of starpower.

Honestly, I do not see the team finishing with a better than 4-4 record during their final eight games.  I wish I could predict otherwise, but the Patriots are going to have to win a majority of their games during their first nine, because their last eight matchups are very tough.

So, our “ceiling” record prediction is going to be 11-6 for the 2022 season.

As for our “floor” prediction for the final eight games, I would have to predict losses against the Vikings, Bills (2x), Cardinals, Raiders, Bengals, and Dolphins.

It is very possible that their only win from their final eight games is against the Jets.  Remember, if we’re looking at the worst case scenario here, this is where I would stand.

So, a 1-7 floor prediction for their final eight games, and a 4-5 floor prediction for their first nine games would give them a record of 5-12 for the 2022 season.

If their ceiling is 11-6, and their floor is 5-12, I do think it’s likely that they’d finish somewhere in the middle, so an eight or nine win 2022 New England Patriots team does not sound outrageous.