Patriots: Why rookie Davis Mills faces long odds of beating Bill Belichick

The New England Patriots and Houston Texans might both come into their Week 5 matchup as 1-3 teams, but they are on completely divergent ends of the spectrum. While the Patriots’ record includes narrow losses to the Dolphins and Tom Brady-led Buccaneers, an injury to Tyrod Taylor forced Houston to start rookie Davis Mills.

This has had…mixed results, to be very kind.

Mills, a third-round pick out of Stanford, played well in a Thursday loss against the Panthers, but his performance in a 40-0 shutout against the Bills was one of the worst games you’ll ever see in the modern NFL.

Mills completed 11 of 21 passes for just 67 yards while throwing four interceptions and being sacked three times. To make matters worse, most of his completions came when the game was already in hand, as he was, at one point, 1-7 with two interceptions in the first half.

Facing Bill Belichick was not what Mills had in mind when it comes to getting back on the right track. Since 2000, rookies are just 6-21 against Belichick, with Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in possession of the only win against a Belichick team by a rookie since the 2014 season.

The Patriots might continue their success against rookie quarterbacks.

The Patriots have already flexed their muscles against some rookies early in this season, as highly-touted Jets quarterback Zach Wilson threw four picks in what was a complete domination of their rivals in New York. A big part of that, in tandem with Belichick’s scheming, is how well the front seven has been playing.

Matt Judon has been one of the best pass rushers in the first quarter of the season, living up to his price tag in free agency. Kyle Van Noy and Dont’a Hightower are back to doing their thing, and second-round rookie Christian Barmore appears to be getting more snaps with each week.

Even without Stephon Gilmore, a secondary led by Devin McCourty and JC Jackson is going to be very problematic for an offense that hasn’t been able to set Mills up for success or execute Tim Kelly’s vision. If the Patriots allow Mills to move the ball consistently against their defense, they need to ask major questions about this team.

After an emotional loss against Tampa Bay, Houston might seem like a trap game to some. However, considering that Mac Jones is coming off a solid performance against a good defense and Belichick has been able to mystify rookie quarterbacks, New England should be favored to win this contest.

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