Patriots: Can Bill Belichick still win divorce with Tom Brady?
Defense wins championships. That has always been true, and coach is right to invest in defense over offense. Win percentage can be estimated according to Pythagorean win equation, based on probability theory, using points scored and points against.
The Pythagorean win percentage estimate is given by:
Pyth win% = (Ptsscored^2.37)/(Ptsscored^2.37+Ptsagainst^2.37)
… and the predicted number of wins is now given by predicted wins = 17* Pyth win%.
It used to be 16, but of course this season the NFL is moving to a 17-game schedule. If our team outscores its opponents 2:1, the Pythagorean win percentage is 83.8% and the predicted number of wins is 14, against 3 losses. Now, how do you get there?
The 2000 Ravens did it with 333 points scored and 165 points given up. It’s noteworthy that their offense was actually below average in terms of points scored. The 1985 Chicago Bears were also incredible, scoring 456 points and giving up 212 points.
But that’s not happening on the offensive side of things. The Chiefs have one of the best offenses the game has ever seen and they’re not coming close to averaging 50 points per game. The Patriots’ run-first offense certainly won’t be doing that.
That’s why the answer in on defense. That’s why Belichick is the right guy for the job to turn this franchise around without the greatest quarterback of all time.
Coach is right, and there’s a mathematical reason for it. Dominance requires strong defense. That’s why Belichick upgraded at every level of the defense this offseason. And if the Patriots are successful in 2021, it’ll be because their defense managed to put the offense in favorable positions week in and week out.
