Patriots: Why New York Jets are a credible threat vs New England
Can the Jets’ defense stop the Patriots offense?
When the Patriots have the ball, their default offense is a run-first, power running attack with their own mastodontic offensive line and two-tight-end formation as their base. This is almost a throwback to the old days when coach Belichick’s mentor, Bill Parcells, used to admonish that “Power football wins!” in his stern baritone voice.
In fact, the term “West Coast Offense” was actually coined by Parcels as a mild insult. The theory was that the bigger, strong teams usually won in cold weather at playoff time, not the fancy west coast passing teams; e.g. San Francisco, without mentioning them by name. Maybe deep down, Bill Belichick has never quit believing in that philosophy. The Patriots have credible veteran running backs in Damien Harris, Sony Michel, and James White. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is generating some buzz on the strength of two touchdowns and a 91-yard run against the Washington Football Team.
The Jets will occupy the middle of the field with Quinnen Williams, Sheldon Rankins (free agent from New Orleans) and Folorunso Fatukasi, all outstanding interior linemen. Carl Lawson was imported from the Bengals to rush the passer, joined by Vinny Curry by way of Philadelphia. The Jets have done the right things to oppose the Patriots with their rebuilt front four, but the Patriots will have a premier group of road grading machines impersonating offensive linemen, led by returning Trent Brown, at 6-foot-8 and 380 pounds. In a contest of quality versus quantity, the Jets would do well slow the Patriots down.
The Jets added Justin Hardee to the defensive secondary, which was weak last season by NFL standards. They also drafted three corners, including Michael Carter 2.0 (the same name as their running back), Jason Pinnock and Brandin Echols. All of these picks are late-round selections.
Michael Carter the cornerback was a three-year starter for the Duke University Blue Devils, drafted in the fifth round. What you need to know about him is that he was clocked at 4.32 seconds in the 40-yard dash in his Pro Day. He was team captain and recorded 41 tackles and two interceptions. Who the screw runs 4.32 at an academically-minded school and lasts until the fifth round? That is crazy, absolutely crazy, and sounds too good to be true. Congratulations to the Jets on this pick.
Then they did it again with another fifth-round pick from the Pitt Panthers in Jason Pinnock. Pinnock wasn’t exactly the leader at his Pro Day, logging 4.52 seconds for the 40. He did, though, turn in a mind-boggling 39.5-inch vertical jump, and a 10-foot-8-inch broad jump. That is insane. Pitt is not the same pedigree as Alabama (ooh!) or Clemson (ah!), but it is the ACC Power Five. Come on! How does a prospect like this last until the fifth round? Still, it would be remiss to not mention that Pinnock wound up being singled out as a disappointment in summer camp by Justin Fried of The Jet Press in a recent article.
The Jets probably did not want to draft a third cornerback, simply because there were other needs that still need to be addressed. But there was Brandin Echols, a 5-foot-11, 178-pound corner from the University of Kentucky Wildcats, a team that plays in the freaking Southeastern Conference (SEC), sitting all alone in Round 6 at the 200th pick. It is claimed that he ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. This is total madness. It sounds like the Jets were just able to draft major talents in the defensive backfield in the late rounds. In 24 career games, with 22 starts, he recorded 108 total tackles, 11 pass breakups, two forced fumbles, one INT and a sack. Fried says that he believes that Echols has surpassed Pinnock on the depth chart in the early going in Jets camp. That trend could reverse itself, of course.
Help is on the way for the Jets secondary. Still, corners take a while to learn to play their position and rarely star from the opening game. In the long run, these picks bode well for the Jets, but we won’t necessarily see the fruits immediately.
The Jets have depth, sure, but don’t necessarily have anyone to strike terror into the hearts of Patriots wide receivers Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Myers and Kendrick Bourne. However, we admit that N’Keal Harry may, in fact, be terrified. Let’s see if he can convince us otherwise this pre-season.
The Jets were probably wise to protect their franchise quarterback as best they could, even if they have a few leaks at other positions that are not properly plugged.
The judgment here is that the Patriots have a definite edge on offense and defense, but the Jets have done enough good things that they have a puncher’s chance to win either matchup at full strength.
This author is not a professional handicapper and does not bet. Just as a fan, however, looking at the two teams on a hypothetical neutral field, the Jets should be dinged at least two points in the early going for having a rookie quarterback launching his career. This could change as the season progresses, and Wilson is good enough that he could become an asset late in the season. The Patriots have a very strong secondary which can shut down the Jets opportunities in the air, and further reduce the Jet’s offensive point total by a point or so. In addition, despite their improved offensive line, the Jets deserve to be docked at least a point and a half for a very unconvincing running game.
Of course, there is a huge debate regarding whether the Patriots will replace Cam Newton with Mac Jones. The anticlimactic answer is that, from a handicapping perspective, it probably does not make that much difference. Cam, of course, is a former NFL MVP and did not have much to work with last season. He will be very likely be better in 2021 if given the opportunity. Similarly, Mac Jones is eventually going to replace Newton, but he is unlikely to be dramatically better in the early going if he gets the nod. Probably as long as the Patriots remain on a trajectory to win the division, Cam may hang onto his job for a while. If the team falters, Jones is going to get the call.
The Patriots are not an offensive juggernaut, and the Jets have partial answers to slow down the Patriots’ run-first offense. The Jets secondary may have talent, but right now they are green. That is not simply a reference to their uniforms, but also the maturing process. The Patriots will be able to attack a talented, but young and error-prone Jets secondary through the air. The net result is that the Patriots should be favored on a hypothetical neutral field by about four or five points. It will be interesting to see whether the professional oddsmakers such as WynnBET agree or not when the Patriots travel to New Jersey to take on the Jets on September 19.
