Patriots: Worst-case scenario for New England’s first-round pick

With the initial waves of free agency firmly in the rearview mirror, the NFL Draft has slowly started to take centerstage across the league.

This narrative increased ten fold following the blockbuster trade between the 49ers and Dolphins, which saw the former jump up nine spots to the No. 3 overall pick.

Where do the New England Patriots factor into all of this? Well, for starters, Jeff Howe of The Athletic reported post-trade that the team is still (!) intent on either trading up to draft a quarterback or re-acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo via trade.

Given that potentially eight other teams, each of whom pick before them, are in need of a quarterback, the Patriots trading up to draft one would be a massive gamble. After all, there’s no way to know for certain that their guy would be available.

With that in mind, let’s assume the Pats go all-out in a pursuit of Jimmy Garoppolo, meaning their first-round pick would presumably be used on another position of need.

Speaking of which, with so much movement already transpiring, and more potentially to come within the next month, what is the worst-case scenario for that pick?

This is the worst-case scenario for the Patriots’ first-round pick.

ESPN expert Mel Kiper Jr. had the Patriots selecting Alabama QB Mac Jones at No. 15 overall in his latest mock, but that obviously wouldn’t happen if they pursued a Garoppolo reunion. That could open the door for Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, but he could be off the board earlier than expected after his groundbreaking pro day.

Given the versatility he provides as a pass rusher and ability to drop back in coverage, Parsons would be a dream fit in head coach Bill Belichick’s system. That, unfortunately, makes him ineligible for the “worse-case scenario” selection.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that five quarterbacks are taken within the first 10 picks. Based on the hype they’ve been generating over the past few months, let’s also say that wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Devonta Smith, tight end Kyle Pitts, offensive tackle Penei Sewell, and cornerback Patrick Surtain are off the board as well.

That leaves OT Rashawn Slater, cornerbacks Caleb Farley and Jaycee Horn, wideout Jaylen Waddle and edge rushers Kwity Paye and Gregory Rousseau as the remaining players who could fall to the Patriots in the first round.

If we’re talking worst-case scenario, Rousseau is probably the lowest-ranked prospect of that bunch. However, we seriously doubt the Patriots would jump the gun and take him after they spent a truckload of cap space upgrading their defensive line in free agency.

The Pats have also already revamped their offensive line, so Slater, regardless of his five-position versatility wouldn’t make much sense, either. Taking that into account, we like to think Farley or Horn are the worst-case scenario selections here.

In our eyes, drafting a cornerback is possible regardless of whether Stephon Gilmore is traded. While it remains to be seen if that happens, his future in New England is anything but a sure thing, meaning Belichick can afford to pounce on Farley or Horn, both of whom project to be high-end starters at the pro level.

Again, Parsons or potentially a wideout if one of the top three studs (Chase, Smith and Waddle) fall would be our ideal picks, but make no bones about it — pairing Gilmore and JC Jackson with Farley or Horn would be quite the silver lining if things don’t fall in the Patriots’ favor on draft night.

Even the worst-case scenario isn’t that bad.

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