Tom Brady will lean on history against Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV

Tom Brady has faced Patrick Mahomes four times since the talented young quarterback became Kansas City’s starter and the matchups are split right down the middle. While being on the losing end of the last two contests, one of Brady’s wins did come in the playoffs when he was with the New England Patriots, and both of the victories were offensive shootouts.

That’s a history that he’ll look to lean on in Super Bowl LV.

Their most recent matchup, Week 12 of this season, was a 27-24 win for Kansas City. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell to 7-5 after that loss, and headed to their bye week looking to regroup.

And oh boy did they ever.

The Bucs haven’t lost since; closing out the regular season winning four in a row. They’ve continued that run by winning all three road games in the playoffs.

And “while the cannons may not fire,” the Bucs have a home game in Super Bowl LV for the first time in NFL history.

Kansas City may be one of the most talented teams in the NFL, but it’s Brady’s history against Reid and Mahomes that will play to his advantage. The most recent history, that Week 12 loss, seemed to have sparked a turnaround. The Bucs have gone from being on the verge of missing the playoffs to on the verge of winning the franchise’s second Super Bowl.

As has been the case for most of Brady’s career, his teams usually gel and gain momentum as the season builds. This year was no different, with the only question being how long it would take. They have answered emphatically since the Week 13 bye.

Here are Brady’s numbers for Weeks 9-12, Tampa Bay’s four weeks prior to their bye.

Under 10 yards

77-for-106 (73%)

6 TD

1 INT

10-20 yards

20-for -35 (57%)

1 TD

0 INT

20+ yards

4-for-22 (18%)

1 TD

4 INT

But then everything seemed to click after that loss to KC.

Under 10 yards

93-for-128 (73%)

6 TD

0 INT

10-20 yards

40 for 64 (63%)

4 TD

0 INT

20+ yards

21-for-47 (45%)

9 TD

4 INT

The Bucs have mastered the deep ball, and that has propelled them to where they are now.

Three of Brady’s recent interceptions on throws of 20+ yards came in the second half of the NFC Championship against Green Bay. Luckily, GB turned those turnovers into a mere six points, along with a couple of three and outs.

Obviously, against KC’s high-powered offense, three INTs in the second half would be disastrous for Brady and the Bucs. So, the outcome of Super Bowl LV will most certainly rely on Tom Brady’s accuracy on passes over 10 yards. Kansas City is going to score plenty of points, so for Tampa Bay to keep up, they’re going to need to be firing on all cylinders.

That means pick their shots deep and when they do, they need to connect. We know Brady will be consistent and surgeon-like under 10 yards. And that will be key to churning out first downs and keeping the ball out of Mahomes’ hands.

Brady has a decent history of gashing the Chiefs for 10-plus yards. In overtime of their last playoff matchup, he converted three 3rd & 10s to keep drives alive and eventually led to the game winning score, which helped him capture his sixth Super Bowl title.

2018 AFC Championship Game:

Under 10 yards

20-for-28 (71%)

0 TD

1 INT

10-20 yards

9-for-13 (69%)

0 TD

1 INT

20+ yards

1-for-4 (25%)

1 TD

0 INT

In 2018, Tom Brady was the X-factor in OT during a game in which his team was outmatched. While this 2020 Tampa Bay team is more talented than the 2018 Patriots, they’re still outmatched as a whole vs Kansas City. For Brady to once again be the X-factor in a playoff matchup against the Chiefs, he’ll need to take care of the football and deliver deep.

At 43 years old, is that too much to ask? As every NFL knows, never doubt Tom Brady.

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