Patriots will win AFC East, but the quarterback position won’t be the reason

With the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins relying on offensive pieces, the New England Patriots will win the East through their secondary.

It is like a game of chess in the AFC East.

But instead of two players, there are four.

Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott, New York Jets coach Adam Gase, and Miami Dolphins coach Brian Flores are all going in one direction, while New England Patriots future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick is going another.

The Bills, Jets, and Dolphins are all relying heavily on quarterbacks that the respective franchises deeply invested in.

Sam Darnold was selected third overall in 2018 by the Jets, Josh Allen was taken seventh overall in 2018 by the Bills, and Tua Tagovailoa was taken fifth in this year’s draft by the Dolphins.

Meanwhile, following the departure of Tom Brady, the Patriots have journeyman Brian Hoyer and 2019 fourth-round selection Jarrett Stidham heading up their quarterback room.

So, with all of the talk surrounding the questionable quarterback situation for the Patriots, that isn’t what will actually win New England the AFC East — it’s the defense, or more specifically, the secondary unit that showed just how dominant it is last season.

Last year, the Patriots secondary ranked second in the league after allowing 180.4 passing yards per game. They also gave up a league-best 13 touchdowns while also leading the NFL with 25 interceptions.

The Patriots finished 12-4-0 to win the division in the 2019-20 season.

Unlike many of the past seasons though, those 12 wins were mainly a product of the stout defensive play, rather than the offense.

Below is a breakdown of opposing quarterback game logs against the Patriots’ vaunted secondary:

Vs. PIT:

Ben Roethlisberger 27-for-47, 276 passing yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 30.3 QBR

@ MIA:

Josh Rosen 7-for-18, 97 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 7.0 QBR

Ryan Fitzpatrick 11-for-21, 89 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 4.6 QBR

Vs. NYJ:

Luke Falk 12-for-22, 98 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 14.0 QBR

@ BUF:

Josh Allen 13-for-28, 153 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 12.6 QBR

Matt Barkley 9-for-16, 127 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 15.9 QBR

@ WAS:

Colt McCoy 18-for-27, 122 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 13.9 QBR

Vs. NYG:

Daniel Jones 15-for-31, 161 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 16.6 QBR

@ NYJ:

Sam Darnold 11-for-32, 86 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 1.0 QBR

Vs. CLE:

Baker Mayfield 20-for-31, 194 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 27.0 QBR

@ PHI:

Carson Wentz 20-for-40, 214 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 47.8 QBR

Vs. DAL:

Dak Prescott 19-for-33, 212 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 26.1 QBR

@ CIN:

Andy Dalton 17-for-31, 151 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT, 13.4 QBR

Vs. BUF:

Josh Allen 13-for-26, 208 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 81.9 QBR

These numbers tell a story on their own: The Patriots secondary is one that strikes fear in opposing quarterbacks. That trend will only continue this coming season and could be even better … scary as that might be to believe for opposing teams and their fans.

This offseason, Belichick has continued to invest in the secondary unit. The team reached an agreement with safety Patrick Chung to extend him through 2023.

Chung started 12 games for the Patriots last season and allowed only one passing touchdown. He didn’t have an interception but he did deflect three passes of the 44 targets he faced.

Stephon Gilmore, the league’s premier cornerback, is under contract through 2022. “Gilly Lock” is at the peak of his career right now and is currently being considered by some as a potential Hall of Fame candidate already at the tender age of 29.

Last season, Gilmore had six interceptions and 20 passes deflected. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 50.5 percent of their passes thrown in his direction, and the corner did not allow a touchdown.

Patriots are also investing and injecting youth in their defense and secondary

Furthermore, in the 2020 NFL Draft, Belichick took safety Kyle Dugger out of Lenoir-Rhyne with the first selection for New England. Dugger, known as a versatile player at the Division II level, showed lots of promise in the pre-draft process, and his ability to move around the field is something that Belichick will covet.

So, with a league that has become much more pass-potent over recent years with guys like Patrick Mahomes becoming the face of the league, that is ultimately not the direction New England is going in this year at least despite the offseason discussion of the quarterback position.

Whether it is Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer, the team’s true identity won’t be on that side of the football.

The AFC East is going to come down to whether or not Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Tua Tagovailoa/Ryan Fitzpatrick can find a way to exploit the Patriots’ elite secondary unit — something they’ve all yet to do.

Buffalo, New York and Miami have invested in offense as well. In this year’s draft, three of the first four Bills draft picks were on offense, three of the Dolphins’ first four picks were on offense, and two of the first four Jets picks were on offense.

On the contrary, the Patriots selected three defensive players with their first three selections.

The other three organizations are hoping these offensive pieces can propel their franchise to the level of play the Patriots have consistently demonstrated for years now.

Based on historical resume, it’s a good bet the mastermind Belichick’s direction is the move that will win out.

After all, chess is a thinking man’s game.