Predicting which Patriots rookie will have the biggest impact in 2020

Of the 10 members in the New England Patriots’ 2020 NFL Draft class, who is poised to make the greatest impact this season?

For the second straight year, the New England Patriots filled their draft class with exactly 10 players from the three-day April event.

In 2019, they took (in order) WR N’Keal Harry, CB Joejuan Williams, DE Chase Winovich, RB Damien Harris, OT Yodny Cajuste, OG Hjalte Froholdt, QB Jarrett Stidham, DE Byron Cowart, P Jake Bailey, and CB Ken Webster.

In 2020, they took (again, in order) S Kyle Dugger, DE Josh Uche, OLB Anfernee Jennings, TE Devin Asiasi, TE Dalton Keene, PK Justin Rohrwasser, OG Michael Onwenu, OT Justin Herron, ILB Cassh Maluia, and C Dustin Woodard.

Using hindsight and considering how the 2019 season played out for the Pats, it’s easy to discern the difference between the then-rookies who made an immediate impact and the ones who didn’t.

Winovich and Bailey were, without a doubt, the top contributors to the team on a weekly basis during the regular season and in New England’s lone playoff game … and it wasn’t even close.

Harry was a distant third. Williams, Harris, and Cowart rank even further back and barely played. Stidham played even less than that trio. Cajuste, Froholdt, and Webster never took a meaningful snap for the team.

Looking at the current construction of the New England roster, is it possible to predict reasonable outcomes for all 10 of the rookies this season — and to ascertain who might make the greatest impact of all right from the gate?

The obvious caveat is injuries. Assuming none of the rooks get hurt between now and the start of the regular season, and assuming there is a regular season, and assuming all 10 were to make it through all 16+ games healthy, where would they all plot out?

The 2020 Patriots draft class looks poised to make a quick impact this year

It’s hard to deny the idea that Rohrwasser might take the cake as the most impactful rookie by default alone. With Stephen Gostkowski gone and the Patriots placekicker position suddenly unfilled, it seems like Rohrwasser may win the job automatically — barring a disastrous training camp, that is.

Just by virtue of playing kicker, Rohrwasser would see the most action throughout the year, as he’d come on for all field goal and extra point attempts.

But it’s not very fun to just give the honor of biggest rookie sensation to a kicker.

Unless we’re thinking Rohrwasser spends the whole season drilling bombs from 50+ yards out and making us all forget about Gostkowski and even Adam Vinatieri en route to a Pro Bowl nomination — and we don’t expect any of that to happen — let’s look elsewhere for this honorary designation.

Asiasi and Keene are somewhat similar to Rohrwasser in that both play a position where the Patriots have an immediate need. While Matt LaCosse is the presumed starter at tight end heading into training camp (with Ryan Izzo the No. 2 option), it does seem like it’s only a matter of time till one (or both) of the young 2020 draft pick tight ends takes over the starting job full-time.

We just don’t necessarily see that happening in 2020. Even if it does happen eventually, it probably won’t happen till much later in the season — rookie tight ends are famous for struggling during their first year in the NFL.

Elsewhere around the rookie draft class, Dugger obviously has the best pedigree … but he could be following a similar trajectory as last year’s second Patriots pick, Joejuan Williams. As good as Williams could be, he was buried on the depth chart in 2019. That’s probably going to be Dugger’s fate in 2020 as well.

Onwenu, Herron, and Woodard also seem similarly buried on the depth chart along the offensive line. Barring injury or a surprise trade, the starting Patriots O-line looks locked in for 2020 (Isaiah Wynn, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon).

We’d bet that even if any of those guys has to come off from time to time, New England would sooner insert Jermaine Eluemunor, Yodny Cajuste, or Hjalte Froholdt than any of these three rookies — at least in 2020.

After all these considerations, we’re left with three remaining rookies: Uche, Jennings, and Maluia, all of whom play defense.

As stacked as the Patriots defense was in 2019 — and as stacked as it looks again heading into 2020 — the two obvious positions of need on that side of the ball this year are linebacker and defensive end. Coincidentally, those are the positions these three men play.

So, who is poised to make the biggest immediate impact?

We’re going to go out on a limb and say it’s Jennings.

As much as the Patriots still need to find consistent production at pass rusher, there’s good reason to think it could come from Chase Winovich and John Simon in 2020. Uche will almost certainly get his opportunities to rack up sacks this year — similar to how Winovich got his last year — but it’d be surprising to see him get more playing time as a rookie than Wino did in 2019.

Maluia seems more like a rotational player on defense who will find the bulk of his playing time occurring on special teams.

Jennings, however, could immediately find major playing time at linebacker given the high-profile offseason departures of Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins Sr., and Elandon Roberts last spring.

Add in the fact that he’s coming from a college powerhouse like Alabama — and he was coached by Bill Belichick’s good buddy Nick Saban previously — and it makes perfect sense why Jennings could see major minutes playing alongside Ja’Whaun Bentley and fellow Crimson Tide alum Dont’a Hightower this fall.