Patriots NFL Draft rumors: ‘They love Justin Herbert’

Rumors surrounding the New England Patriots taking a quarterback early in the 2020 NFL Draft are back and forth, although the latest points to Oregon’s Justin Herbert.

If the New England Patriots end up taking a quarterback early in the 2020 NFL Draft, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to anyone. After all, it’s not an often occurrence to lose a future Hall of Famer, which was the case when Tom Brady elected to depart New England in free agency for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

At the same time, if head coach Bill Belichick passed on a quarterback in Round 1 of the draft, it wouldn’t be too shocking a surprise either. After all, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest Belichick is comfortable letting second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham have every chance to earn a long-term starting job.

Yet NBC Sports’ Peter King suggests the Patriots have eyes on one particular top quarterbacking prospect in this year’s draft, Oregon’s Justin Herbert.

King’s rumor report doesn’t reveal much, citing what he heard from another general manager assessing New England’s interests. But the breakdown is provocative:

"“They love Justin Herbert, but enough to trade up for him?” one rival GM said. Pats do have 12 picks—second-most in the draft—for ammo, but only one of those comes in the top 85. If they want Herbert, they’d likely have to be willing to part with the 2021 first-rounder in a trove of picks."

A few things to add to the context here.

Herbert could easily be a top-15 pick when the NFL Draft kicks off on April 23, perhaps even going within the top 10. Currently sitting at No. 23, it would take a lot for Belichick to move up and get a player like Herbert. While the Pats do have a lot of draft capital, their next selection after No. 23 overall doesn’t come until late in Round 3.

Looking at this draft pick-value trade chart, it’s not hard to see why King thinks a would-be trade up to grab Herbert might force New England to dip into its crop of selections in 2021.

The Patriots-Herbert rumors aren’t the only bit of speculation King offered up, either. In addition, he mentioned the Pats looking at Notre Dame tight end Cole Kmet as a possible replacement to address what was a massive void on the roster last year.

Kmet is widely viewed as a second-round prospect, and the 2020 class isn’t particularly deep at the position.

But as is the case with reaching for Herbert, New England would likely have to engineer some kind of trade to move up into Round 2.

Yet another plausible route to take here would be to trade out of the No. 23 spot, accruing some additional day-two draft capital and a much better shot at selecting Kmet. This would ultimately mean passing on Herbert, but that might be Belichick’s plan anyway.

And it’s important to remember, roughly 50 percent of the rumors floating around this time of year remains part of the proverbial “smoke and mirrors” campaign so many teams utilize to keep rivals off balance.