New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs: Scouting Report

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 20: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs fumbles the ball as he is hit by Kyle Van Noy #53 of the New England Patriots in the second quarter during the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 20, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 20: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs fumbles the ball as he is hit by Kyle Van Noy #53 of the New England Patriots in the second quarter during the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 20, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /
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New England Patriots
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – DECEMBER 01: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs the ball against the Oakland Raiders during the second quarter in the game at Arrowhead Stadium on December 01, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

When the Chiefs pass the ball

The Chiefs are fourth in total offense (384.7 yards per game) and third in points (29 points per game). They are also third in passing yards (290.1 yards per game), and quarterback Patrick Mahomes has shaken off his knee injury and continues playing at an MVP level, completing 64.5% of his pass attempts with 20 touchdowns, just two interceptions, and a 107.7 quarterback rating on the season so far.

The Patriots are second in passing defense this year, allowing just an average of 163.5 yards passing per game. They have allowed only eight passing touchdowns (second-best) and intercepted 20 passes (tops in the NFL). The secondary has been the key for New England, as Stephon Gilmore (four interceptions and 13 passes defended) continues to audition for the best cornerback in the league.

New England had a unique game-plan against the Chiefs last season, putting speedy slot cornerback Jonathan Jones with Devin McCourty deep on wide receiver Tyreek Hill. This year there is another wrinkle to account for since second-round draft pick Mecole Hardman also possesses blazing speed and gives the Kansas City offense two deep threats to pressure defenses.

DeMarcus Robinson has also shown improvement in a contract year, setting career highs already in receptions and yards. High-priced wide receiver Sammy Watkins remains the NFL’s biggest tease. After a 198-yard receiving and three touchdown performance in Week 1, he has no touchdowns and a high of 64 yards receiving in a game ever since… and has just seven receptions for 65 yards in the past three games combined.

Kansas City still runs the offense through tight end Travis Kelce. In the AFC Championship Game, it was handsy cornerback J.C. Jackson on Kelce until crunch-time. Then the Patriots moved Gilmore off wide receiver Sammy Watkins and had him lock down the pass-catching tight end for a reception-less fourth quarter.

Hardman will likely see cornerback Jason McCourty (if he is healthy enough to play after missing the past two games). McCourty may not have the straight-line speed to keep up with the rookie, but he does have the veteran wiles to keep Hardman from getting a clean release off the line.

However New England aligns, it is a matchup of a deep secondary versus a deep receiving corp and an elite passer. The Chiefs are going to win their share of matchups, and the Patriots will win their share as well. There will be no shutouts on Sunday, but the Patriots will be a tough test for Mahomes and the Andy Reid offense.

EDGE: Even