Final thoughts on New England Patriots versus Cleveland Browns

Despite their very different schedules on the season so far, the New England Patriots would be wise not to look past the talented Cleveland Browns.

The New England Patriots are double-digit favorites over their opponent for the fifth time in eight games this season. However, unlike contests against the Dolphins, Jets, Redskins, and Giants, this particular game against the Browns could prove to be a bit trickier than oddsmakers might have you believe at first.

On paper, Cleveland could put up a valid argument that they’re a more talented team than New England. Certainly when it comes to the offenses of both squads this season, there really isn’t much of a comparison.

Whereas the Patriots have struggled to find the right personnel to surround Tom Brady with all season, the Browns feature some of the most exciting playmakers in the league. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry form arguably the best one-two punch at wide receiver in the entire NFL, and second-year running back Nick Chubb is the engine that’s made this Browns team go all year long. Chubb currently ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards.

The balance of power shifts dramatically when considering both teams’ defenses, however.

Cleveland is a bit of a one-trick pony on D in 2019, riding what’s quickly becoming a career year from star pass-rusher Myles Garrett. Garrett is tied with Tampa Bay Buccaneers sensation Shaquil Barrett for the most sacks in the league right now with nine, and he could easily add to that total on Sunday against a suspect Patriots offensive line.

But beyond Garrett, there’s not a whole lot to love about this Browns defense. Olivier Vernon came over from the New York Giants in the OBJ trade, but he’s failed to make much of an impact since arriving in Cleveland, despite the perceived benefits of playing on the opposite side of the formation from a generational talent like Garrett.

Browns starting safety Damarious Randall has already been ruled out for the contest, and it remains to be seen just how rusty cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams might be after missing the past month with hamstring injuries. Elsewhere on Cleveland’s defensive roster, there aren’t a whole lot of big names… though defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has done a nice job working with a relatively young group and molding them into something respectable.

Where Cleveland’s defense can be beat, however, is against the run. The Browns rank third-worst in the NFL in rushing defense – only the winless Cincinnati Bengals and winless Miami Dolphins have allowed more rush yards per game this season than Cleveland.

At the opposite end of the spectrum defensively is New England, who currently rank second in both rushing and passing yards allowed per game. The Patriots D is also first in total yards allowed per game, first in points allowed per game, first in third down conversion percentage, first in interceptions, and second in sacks. Perhaps most impressive of all, Bill Belichick’s defense has allowed just three total touchdowns through seven weeks of the season – two on the ground and one through the air.

This New England defense is the perfect example of a collective sum being stronger than its individual parts… but that doesn’t mean the Patriots don’t have plenty of stars on that side of the ball. Free safety Devin McCourty leads both the team and the league in picks with five so far this year, and fellow defensive back Stephon Gilmore might be the best corner in the NFL today. Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy are also well on their way to becoming household names outside of the New England region – if they’re not that way already by now.

The Patriots will hope to have a field day at the expense of Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield on Sunday. Mayfield, who is another former No. 1 overall pick of Cleveland’s, represents the brightest hope the Browns have had at quarterback in decades, and he could very well be the player who ends up breaking a 16-year playoff drought.

Unfortunately though, Mayfield hasn’t played like that franchise savior in 2019. He’s thrown more than twice as many interceptions as he’s thrown touchdowns – this just a year after setting the record for most touchdown passes by a rookie QB – and he also has a fumble on the season, to boot. Unless he starts exercising a bit more caution, care, and restraint with the football, the Browns are going to have a difficult time keeping pace with some of the more potent offenses around the league.

As such, the Patriots defense is understandably hungry to face the young Mayfield at home before what will surely be a rambunctious and spirited crowd. There may be some rain in the forecast for the game on Sunday, too, which could make the ball even more slippery and difficult to hold onto for the former Heisman Trophy winner.

For the Patriots offense, priority No. 1 has got to be slowing down Garrett and giving Tom Brady enough time to get the ball out to his receivers. Even at 42, Brady has one of the NFL’s quickest times of release when it comes to throwing the football, but he’ll need every split second he can get while working to integrate a bunch of unproven and untested receivers.

Mohamed Sanu is a talented veteran and a polished route-runner, but he’s also brand-new to the Patriots system this week. Eric Tomlinson and Benjamin Watson – New England’s only two options at tight end because of injuries to Ryan Izzo and Matt LaCosse – both made their season debuts for the Patriots on Monday against the Jets. Josh Gordon was recently relegated to IR and looks headed for a messy divorce from the team, and both Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett have battled injuries in recent weeks.

Perhaps the best course of action for this Patriots offense to take on Sunday is to focus on establishing the run. Not only will that take away some of the threat of Garrett getting after Brady, but it will also help control the game tempo and keep the ball away from the talented Cleveland offense (Mayfield, Chubb, Beckham Jr., and Landry). While New England has held up well against the big play so far this year on defense, they also haven’t faced an offensive arsenal as explosive as this Browns group either.

If ever there was a time for second-year running back Sony Michel to get back on track as the primary proprietor of this Patriots offense, that time might be this week. If Michel can’t find his footing against a terrible Browns defense that has averaged over 150 yards surrendered on the ground per game, he might not be able to find it against anyone else this year.