Ripples of Patrick Mahomes injury definitely affect Patriots

While it appears the Chiefs avoided complete catastrophe with Patrick Mahomes’ injury, it still could drastically alter the Patriots’ fate this season.

You’d have to be downright evil to experience anything other than sympathy and concern while watching Kansas City Chiefs quarterback and reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes lay motionless on the turf Thursday night in a game against the Denver Broncos.

Even as Patriots fans, who largely don’t want anything to do with Mahomes or the dangerous Chiefs offense during the regular season or in the playoffs, it’s still impossible to argue against the fact that the NFL and football in general is much better off with Mahomes healthy, active, and doing what he does best.

The young Kansas City superstar attempted a quarterback sneak in the second quarter of Thursday night’s game and ended up flat on his back, clutching at his right knee in obvious pain and discomfort. While he was ultimately able to limp off the field under his own power (albeit accompanied by the Chiefs’ medical staff), his playing status was quickly ruled out, and he did not return for the remainder of the contest.

On Friday, Mahomes had an MRI done on his leg. Early reports said that his kneecap was dislocated, but also noted that provided there was no major structural damage to any of his ligaments, he’d probably be able to return this season. Later on in the day, ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter tweeted that the results of the MRI were relatively positive, all things considered.

If indeed the timetable suggested above is accurate, that would put Mahomes on track to return in Week 11 for a Monday Night Football game against the Los Angeles Chargers. If the Chiefs want to play it safe, they could actually give him a bit more time to recover since the team’s bye is the following week. Under that scenario, Mahomes would make his return in Week 13 during a December 1 game against the Oakland Raiders.

Is the NFL ready to survive for potentially a month-and-a-half without one of their brightest stars?

This year has already been particularly unkind to starting quarterbacks around the league. The Bills, Jets, Steelers, Jaguars, Redskins, Bears, Saints, Panthers, and now the Chiefs have all been forced to turn to their second or even their third-string options at the game’s most important position at various moments throughout the season’s first six weeks.

Even if Mahomes only misses three games in this “best-case scenario” outlined by the Chiefs, the ramifications could be gigantic… particularly in the AFC, and especially for the New England Patriots.

As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell noted Friday, Mahomes’ injury opens the door for competition in the AFC West division race. While it might seem implausible for the Raiders, Chargers, or Broncos to seriously challenge the Chiefs for the division winner’s automatic playoff spot, that’s the reality of a post-Mahomes world. The Raiders, in particular, are set up to leapfrog the Chiefs if certain events continue to go their way, as both teams have the same number of losses so far this year.

The Ravens and Texans are also poised to capitalize on the Mahomes injury if the Chiefs drop any of the games their star quarterback is forced to miss. Both teams have two losses and four wins on the season. If each wins again this weekend, they would have the same record as Kansas City, which would obviously set up the following three weeks that Mahomes misses as crucial to the playoff seeding race.

The Texans also already have the head-to-head win over the Chiefs, so that result could loom large in dictating which team earns itself a first-round bye, should both Houston and Kansas City find themselves tied with identical records at the end of the season. Bill O’Brien’s Texans suddenly have a bit more room for potential error with tough games against the Colts, Ravens, and Patriots upcoming, knowing that Kansas City could be vulnerable now that backup quarterback Matt Moore is at the controls.

No team benefits more from the Mahomes injury than the Patriots, however. As ESPN’s Ben Fawkes pointed out in a recent tweet, New England’s odds to win Super Bowl LIV jumped from +200 to +180 at Caesars sportsbook on Friday.

The Patriots already have a two-game lead on the Chiefs in the AFC thanks to Kansas City’s back-to-back home losses in Weeks 5-6 to the Colts and Texans. New England is obviously 6-0 to start the year, and they can maintain that two-game lead by extending their record to 7-0 with a win over the New York Jets on Monday night.

Barnwell reports that New England’s odds of attaining a first-round bye either via the No. 1 or the No. 2 seed in the postseason jumped to an impressive 93% after Mahomes was injured. The Texans have the second-best odds at 45%, and the Chiefs are now third at 36.8%.

Kansas City’s next three games come against the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, and Tennessee Titans. The first two are at home, which should be good news for Chiefs fans, despite the fact that the team’s two losses this season both came at Arrowhead. It would have been hard to imagine Matt Moore leading a banged-up Chiefs squad to victory at Lambeau Field against Aaron Rodgers, or to a win over the Vikings and their excellent defense at U.S. Bank Stadium, where Minnesota is undefeated this year.

Still, it’s not absurd to think that the Packers and the Vikings could both be favored to beat the Chiefs in the next two weeks. If Kansas City stumbles in one or both weeks, they might not even be favored to beat the Titans in Week 10, who could be starting their own backup at quarterback in Ryan Tannehill.

Of course, there’s nothing that says the Chiefs will lose any of the games Mahomes misses. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is one of the best minds in the NFL, and he certainly will tailor his offense around Moore in an effort to try and keep the ship afloat while Mahomes is out. He knows as well as his fanbase that the Chiefs can ill-afford to drop any more games this season, with or without Mahomes under center, considering the Patriots’ hot start at 6-0.

Hopefully Mahomes makes a speedy and complete recovery, because he really is one of the most entertaining players to watch in the league today… and he’s just a really classy, likable human being as well. He already has Tom Brady’s respect, and he should have the respect and appreciation of Patriots Nation, too.

Nonetheless, his injury and subsequent absence – however long it ends up being – absolutely has a major effect on New England. The Patriots obviously are gunning for an undefeated season this year (who wouldn’t be?), but if they should slip up at some point, they might have more breathing room in the race for the No. 1 seed this year thanks to this turn of events Thursday night… however unfortunate it may be for Mahomes, for the Chiefs, and for football.