Could Tom Brady actually catch Drew Brees in career passing yards?

Now that Tom Brady has eclipsed Peyton Manning in career passing yards, what are the chances he could catch Drew Brees for the No. 1 spot?

Tom Brady and Drew Brees are inarguably two of the greatest quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. Because they play in different conferences, they’ve rarely faced off over the course of their illustrious careers… and as a result, they’ve never quite had the kind of rivalry that Brady had with some of his other peers, such as Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and even Eli Manning to a certain extent.

Nevertheless, these two signal-callers share much in common. They’re both surefire first-ballot Hall of Famers, they’re both Super Bowl champions, and they’re both relatively well-liked inside the NFL community by both their teammates and by players from other teams.

They’re also both making a run at nearly every major statistical record that exists for NFL quarterbacks.

Brady has played for the New England Patriots for 20 seasons now. Brees has played for the San Diego Chargers and the New Orleans Saints for 19 combined seasons. Because of their incredible longevity in such a brutal and often injury-riddled sport, both players have had the opportunity to slowly climb the record books and give football immortality their very best shot.

In Week 5 of last season, Brees broke Peyton Manning’s all-time record for the most career passing yards. Five weeks later, he passed Brett Favre in all-time career passing touchdowns to become the new No. 2 on that list.

In Week 3 of this season, Brady passed Brees on that same list for career passing touchdowns – thanks in no small part to a thumb injury that knocked Brees out of action early in Week 2. Then in Week 5, Brady leapfrogged Favre on the career passing yardage list to become No. 3 in that hierarchy briefly. Just four days later, he jumped Manning to become No. 2 all-time.

It’s now a two-man race to accomplish two separate historical milestones. Both Brees and Brady surely want to finish out their careers ranked No. 1 in career passing yards and career passing touchdowns. Barring disaster, by the end of this 2019 season, both quarterbacks will occupy the top-two spots on each all-time record list.

The question now is: in what order?

Due to Brees’ injury, Brady now has a nice head-start on the touchdown record, currently held by Manning at 539. He needs 12 more scores to tie and 13 to break it, whereas Brees now needs 17 more scores to tie and 18 to break it. While there’s certainly no guarantee that Brady will throw for 12 touchdown passes over his remaining 10 games, he probably will have a chance to break the record sometime in December before the regular season ends and the playoffs begin.

Whether or not he maintains his hold on the top spot in touchdowns is very much up in the air, however. It all depends on how much longer he and Brees both play in the NFL. Brady has repeatedly claimed he wants to play for at least another two or three more seasons, whereas Brees has been much less responsive in outlining his plans for a theoretical retirement.

Neither quarterback has a contract that guarantees them future employment from a financial standpoint, for what it’s worth.

Presumably though, Brady has a very good chance at both taking the touchdown record this season, as well as holding it (maybe even “forever”), given his present level of play and his stated intentions about how much longer he plans to keep competing in the NFL. Brees’ thumb injury this season may very well cost him the opportunity to break Manning’s record… and more importantly, it may put him too far behind Brady to catch up.

On the bright side for Saints fans or for fans of Drew Brees in general, the opposite is most likely true for the career passing yardage mark.

Brees and Brady are currently No. 1 and No. 2 on that all-time list, and neither one seems likely to get displaced from that mountaintop anytime soon. Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers are their closest active competitors, but given the statistical gap between those three QBs and where Brees and Brady rank – plus the injury concerns and obvious decline in play for that trio – it’s probably safe to assume that Brees and Brady are both secure where they stand.

Could Brady catch Brees and overtake him for the top spot?

Conceivably, yes. The Patriots quarterback is exactly 2,588 yards behind his Saints counterpart currently; that’s a ton of yardage, but it’s also not impossible to close as far as gaps go… particularly in terms of today’s pass-happy NFL. Brady is averaging 290.5 passing yards per game through the first six weeks of the season. Mathematically, if he were to continue on that general pace, he’d surpass Brees in the final week of the regular season this year.

Of course, Brees is also due to return to action much sooner than Week 17. Most believe he’s looking at a 6-8 week recovery for his surgically-repaired thumb, which means that realistically, the earliest he’d probably return would be after the Saints’ bye for a game against Atlanta in Week 10.

Brees has told reporters frequently throughout his rehab that he’d like to return sooner if he can, but given his backup Teddy Bridgewater’s high level of play during his absence (4-0 in four full starts), it doesn’t make sense for New Orleans to rush him back. The smart move for the Saints organization would be to keep riding Bridgewater until after their bye, allowing Brees more than enough time to get as close to 100% as possible.

The truth of the matter is, unless Brees is sidelined longer than eight weeks this year, he sustains another injury this year or next year, or he decides to retire after this season or next season, he’s probably got too much of a lead on Brady for the Patriots quarterback to catch him. Still, it will be an exciting race to the finish, given the many variables that could affect this competition down the stretch as both QBs continue to play into their 40s.