Jets defense should be a good measuring stick for Sony Michel

A New York Jets rushing defense ranked 13th in the NFL could provide a great litmus test to see whether or not Sony Michel is actually improving.

New England Patriots running back Sony Michel is having a rough second year in the NFL so far.

As a rookie, the former Georgia Bulldog rushed for 931 yards in just 13 games and averaged a robust 4.5 yards per carry. He also scored six touchdowns during that timespan, despite the fact that he only actually started eight games for the Patriots in 2018.

His efficiency and overall production in 2019 has severely dipped off from those marks he set last year. Based off his incredible three-game outing in the playoffs last season, many assumed the offense would literally run through Michel this year, and that he’d be a lock to improve upon his statistics in Year Two.

And yet through six games so far, Michel has just 348 yards on the ground and is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry – a whole yard less per rush than he averaged as a rookie. Projected over a full 16-game season, Michel is on pace to finish with 928 yards rushing – which would actually be less than what he accrued in 2018, despite the extra three games of stats.

Part of the problem can be traced back to the offensive line. Last season, the fivesome of Trent Brown, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, and Marcus Cannon finished the year ranked as the overall No. 4 offensive line in the NFL, per ProFootballFocus.

All five players graded out among the top-75 offensive linemen in the league, AND Rob Gronkowski was still around. While Gronk certainly wasn’t himself as a receiver last year with all his injuries, he still was a well above-average blocking tight end… as was Dwayne Allen.

This season, New England has seen a pronounced drop-off in overall talent and execution across their offensive line, as well as at tight end. Brown is with the Raiders now, and his replacement (Isaiah Wynn) is on injured reserve. Marshall Newhouse has struggled at times playing left tackle for the team in his place.

Andrews is also on IR, though he’s been better covered by Ted Karras. Cannon has missed some time this season with injuries of his own. Mason is definitely experiencing some regression compared to 2018, when he was the Pats’ best lineman, bar-none. And at tight end, no combination of Ryan Izzo or Matt LaCosse has been that effective in run-blocking thus far (or in receiving or pass protection, for that matter, either).

Help could be on the way soon. Wynn might get activated off the IR and return after the Patriots’ bye week. New England also just inked Benjamin Watson and Eric Tomlinson to the roster recently. Tomlinson, in particular, could be used out of the backfield in more of a fullback-type role, and that would obviously be done with the intention of springing additional running lanes for Michel.

Ultimately though, Michel is going to need to step it up himself before the winter months start bringing with them bad weather and a renewed commitment to the run game. He has looked anything but explosive with the ball in his hands; even when he’s managed to hit the hole and break free from initial tackles, he hasn’t really accelerated or displayed the high-end top speed he was known for back in his SEC college playing days. His longest rush this season came just last Thursday against the New York Giants, but even that only went for 26 yards.

In fact, Michel’s strongest two games this season have both come in the past two weeks. Normally that would be seen as an encouraging development, as it could be interpreted as a sign that he’d finally turned a corner and found his step again.

Unfortunately though, his increased success rate in Weeks 5 and 6 could also be just as much a byproduct of the teams he was facing: the Giants and the Washington Redskins. Both NFC East squads rank in the bottom-10 of the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed this season – New York is No. 24 and Washington is No. 28 in run defense.

A better test comes this week on Monday Night Football when the Patriots travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Jets. New England’s bitter division rival has actually held up fairly well against opposing runners this season, currently ranking 13th in rush yards allowed per game.

The Jets are easily the best run defense that Michel and the Patriots will have faced since they went up to Buffalo in Week 4 and got stood up by the Bills’ ferocious defensive front there. As such, New York might actually be the perfect thing for Michel and the Patriots right now, because they’ll represent a true barometer for where he’s at on the year.

Is he truly improving and shaking off his poor start to the season, as would be suggested by the last two games he had against the Giants and the Redskins? Or were his stats in those games simply propped up by the poor quality of the opposition? If his final numbers are more in line with what he did earlier in the season against this same Jets squad, we’ll know it’s the latter.

Hopefully though, he’ll continue to build on his recent improvements and remind everyone why he was a first-round pick just one year ago.