Patriots might have better luck running than throwing vs Bills

The New England Patriots might have more success offensively running versus the Buffalo Bills rather than trying to throw on them.

While there are many factors, angles, and storylines that will play into deciding who wins the AFC East matchup today between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills, ultimately this game should come down to one area above all others: how the Patriots offense fares against the Bills defense.

Both units are extremely talented, and both are playing good football so far this season. It’s hard for any NFL team to remain undefeated through three weeks, so give credit to both organizations for putting out a solid product from wire-to-wire for the most part. These are clearly –clearly – the top two teams in what is an awful NFL division.

But while the battle between the Patriots defense and the Bills offense looks like a significant New England advantage (at least on paper), the clash between the Patriots offense and the Bills defense seems like it could be much more competitive today.

At first glance, it would seem illogical to counsel the Patriots to lean on their run game offensively against the Bills. After all, New England has the No. 2 passing attack in the league behind Kansas City, whereas their rush attack is mediocre at best, checking in at No. 21. The Pats’ leading rusher from last year, Sony Michel, has struggled so far in his second season, and the injury-depleted New England offensive line has done a terrible job of run-blocking.

Still, the Patriots might have more success against the Bills on the ground than they would through the air.

While Buffalo ranks eighth defensively in both categories when it comes to yards surrendered, the strength of Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s defense is widely considered to be the secondary. This belief is further reinforced by Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, which peg the Bills’ pass defense at No. 4 in the league but has their rush defense only at No. 21.

However the Patriots choose to attack this Bills defense, one of the most important strategies has got to be starting fast and putting points up on the board early. New England has scored before their opponent in all three games this season, all of which became easy Patriots wins. Doing so again today on the road would essentially take the crowd out of the game early, and that could be just what New England needs to push their record to 4-0 on the season.