New England Patriots: W2W4 AFC Championship Game vs Kansas City Chiefs
By Hal Bent
KC PASSING OFFENSE vs NE PASS DEFENSE
Last week I argued in this piece that Philip Rivers had not been playing well for over a month, even though media and talking heads ignored the drop-off in his statistical production while fawning all over the Chargers. Now I am here to say that despite throwing for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns, there are simply not enough accolades out there for Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He has been the best NFL player regardless of position in 2018.
While his father was a lousy reliever in his short time in Boston, the Patriots are well aware of what Junior can do with the ball in his hand. The Patriots pressured Mahomes and snagged a pair of interceptions in the first half of their Week 6 match-up; they also caused three stops on third down to force field goals. Despite that, the young gunslinger quickly adapted, and scored touchdowns on four of six second-half drives to finally bring the Chiefs back and tie the game at 40-40.
Mahomes had what would be considered a down start for him last week against Indianapolis, completing 27 of 41 passes and throwing for just 278 yards and no touchdowns while being sacked four times. The Colts came out with their smothering Cover-2 defense to take away deep shots down the field, and had extra defensive backs dare Mahomes to run the ball.
In a sign of maturity beyond his young age, Mahomes took the check-down passes to running back Damien Williams, and focused on tight end Travis Kelce and third or fourth option Sammy Watkins in the passing game. He also handed off the ball 30 times, letting Williams gash the Colts’ undersized front.
The Kansas City passing attack is ridiculous. Tyreek Hill has amazing quickness and vertical speed; even with extra attention all game long last week, Hill grabbed eight passes for 72 yards and added a 36 yard run. For the season, Hill caught 87 passes for 1,479 yards (17 yards per catch) and a dozen touchdowns. He also returned punts for the Chiefs, averaging 10.7 yards per return and running one back for a touchdown.
Let’s not forget Travis Kelce at tight end. All Kelce did in 2018 was catch 103 passes for 1,336 yards (13 yards per catch) and haul in 10 touchdowns. At 6’5, Kelce is surprisingly fast, athletic, and a real handful for any defense. Last week he feasted on the Colts’ Cover-2 scheme and pulled in seven passes for 108 yards.
The Chiefs do miss running back Kareem Hunt in the passing game. He averaged a ridiculous 14.5 yards per catch and had seven receiving touchdowns to go with his seven rushing touchdowns in the first 11 weeks. His release (due to an off-field assault) turned the running back position over to Spencer Ware and Damien Williams.
Ware is a solid receiver, but a hamstring injury slowed him toward the back-end of the season. Williams has stepped up as the new lead back, but he lacks the impact in the passing game that Hunt brought.
That means Mahomes has to lean more frequently on wide receiver Sammy Watkins. As a third option, it is tough to find someone more talented than Watkins. Injuries and playing in Buffalo have slowed the Clemson star (who was drafted ahead of Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in the 2014 NFL Draft), and he has missed time again this season, forcing the Chiefs to lean on disappointing wideouts Chris Conley and Demarcus Robinson. Watkins showed up last week with six receptions for 62 yards, making his biggest impact since midseason.
The Patriots will likely put Stephon Gilmore on Tyreek Hill and keep Duron Harmon back as the deep Cover-1 safety to help out if Hill gets past Gilmore. The Patriots have–like every other team–struggled to keep Hill from hurting them in previous meetings. In two games against New England, he racked up 14 catches for 275 yards and four touchdowns. Step one for Belichick and Brian Flores has got to be finding a way to slow down Hill.
The next headache to deal with is Travis Kelce. Head coach Bill Belichick has always put special focus on Kelce, often employing his defensive ends and linebackers to slow his release at the line of scrimmage. Behind the linebackers, safeties Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty have to account for the tight end. In their last two games, the Patriots held Kelce to just ten catches for 101 yards and no touchdowns.
Linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts need to check Damien Williams out of the backfield. Unlike Hunt, who could line up and run routes like a wide receiver, Williams is a safety valve who the Patriots can contain with sure tackling.
Watkins will see both Jason McCourty and rookie J.C. Jackson in coverage most likely.
New England can help their pass defense with a strong pass rush. The Chiefs have struggled at times in pass protection, but Mahomes’ athleticism covers up many mistakes, and he is at his most dangerous outside the pocket extending plays. He seemingly makes a handful of ridiculous throws outside the pocket each week that no other quarterback is humanly capable of.
The Patriots need to pin Mahomes in the pocket with a disciplined rush on the edge that keeps him from escaping outside the pocket. Pressure should come from a blitzing linebacker or by rushing Trey Flowers inside. Deatrich Wise should also be back to help Flowers, with John Simon on the edge generating pressure and Adam Butler pushing the pile inside.
It is no easy task to slow the Chiefs’ passing game, and the Patriots will need to be at their best on the road Sunday night to even have a chance in keeping the game close and then pulling out the victory.