How will the arctic blast affect the Patriots and Chiefs this Sunday?

Forecasts are calling for an arctic blast that could make this weekend’s AFC Championship between the Patriots and the Chiefs one of the coldest games ever.

The words “arctic blast” might send shivers down many a spine (get it?), but not Bill Belichick’s.

One week after dismissing any notion of the weather affecting the New England Patriots’ divisional round matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers – “we’re playing the Chargers; we’re not playing the weather” – Belichick picked up right where he left off in his latest press conference, once again rolling his eyes at any and all meteorological-related questions.

“We’re getting ready for the Chiefs. Whatever it is, it is,” Belichick icily told reporters Wednesday. “Love to play in the championship game. Schedule it wherever you want. We’ll be there.”

That last bit might be in reference to the Patriots’ uncharacteristically poor road record this season. Two years after going 8-0 away from Gillette Stadium, New England posted its worst visitor record since 2009 this season with a paltry 3-5 mark.

Much like the weather forecast, Belichick had zero interest in discussing that topic either, as he made crystal-clear in a radio interview Tuesday.

“The hardest thing about playing at Arrowhead is the Chiefs, and they are a great football team, the top seed in the AFC this year. Obviously they’re very good. Playing them anywhere is hard.”

The Patriots’ road struggles speak for themselves in the numbers this season. But what about the weather forecast? Would an arctic chill tend to favor the home team, the away team, or neither?

It’s hard to say. The Chiefs played in snowy conditions last Saturday and didn’t seem to be adversely affected, putting the Colts away with ease. Similarly, the Patriots played a game against the Chargers that was dry but bitterly cold, with the temperature at kickoff in the mid-20s, and New England won convincingly.

Both teams are used to playing in cold weather based off their home stadiums, each of which is outdoors. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady obviously has a lot more experience playing in wintry conditions than his counterpart, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, simply because of the immense age gap between the two signal-callers. Then again, Mahomes has looked like a superhuman on the field all season long… what’s a little cold weather to the presumptive league MVP?

“A little cold weather” might be an enormous understatement though. As Will Brinson at CBS Sports notes, Sunday’s championship game could very well be the coldest game in Kansas City Chiefs history.

Generally-speaking, cold weather conditions often lead to more run-heavy offensive approaches, because the football is firmer and harder to catch out of the air. That would seemingly favor the Patriots, who have leaned on rookie Sony Michel to power their ground game and grind out tough yards against opposing defenses.

The Chiefs also aren’t exactly world-beaters against running backs. They finished the regular season ranked No. 27 out of 32 teams in rushing defense, though they did hold the Colts below 100 yards rushing last weekend.

If Michel and the Patriots can churn out chunk plays in the run game, that does two important things for New England: it keeps Tom Brady’s arm fresher for when he needs it most, and it keeps Patrick Mahomes and the electrifying Chiefs offense on the sideline and off the football field.

Bring it on, arctic blast.