New England Patriots: W2W4 Divisional Playoff Game vs Los Angeles Chargers
By Hal Bent
LAC RUSHING OFFENSE vs NE RUSH DEFENSE
Melvin Gordon has been back for three weeks after missing four games with a knee injury. He and Austin Ekeler combined to be a dynamic duo at running back this season for the Chargers. Gordon rushed for 885 yards and Ekeler for 554 yards. Both also impressively averaged over five yards per attempt.
Justin Jackson picked up playing time with Gordon sidelined, but the seventh round draft pick struggled running the football; he was effective as a receiver coming out of the backfield, however. If No. 32 is in the game, the Patriots need to be alert if he gets his hands on the ball, as unheralded receiving running backs have hurt the Patriots in the past (see Corey Clement in last year’s Super Bowl).
The Chargers, like the Patriots, thrive off the play-action passing game, and need their running backs contributing to set up third-and-short situations. When they do, it allows the Chargers to get single coverage down the field, as opposing safeties tend to then cheat to stop the run.
The running backs have indeed performed well for Los Angeles, and it’s reflected in the stats. Football Outsiders ranked the Chargers’ offensive line fifth in “Adjusted Line Yards” (the Patriots are third) which grades each running back carry and assigns responsibility to the offensive line. New England needs to win individual battles up front to keep the Chargers’ running game from taking control of the game.
The Patriots have found success the past few weeks bringing back nose tackle Danny Shelton. Shelton has held his ground and been a powerful force in the middle of the defensive line after being a healthy scratch for the first three games in December. Shelton and Malcom Brown will be counted upon to plug up holes up front today.
New England also needs their linebackers to shed second-level blocks and get to the running back before they get moving downfield. Look for Elandon Roberts on early downs helping Kyle Van Noy and Dont’a Hightower in the run defense. The edge is vital to keep these backs from bouncing runs outside, which in turn puts pressure on Deatrich Wise and Trey Flowers at defensive end.
When the Patriots stop the run, they are hard to beat. New England is 7-0 when they hold their opponent under 100 yards rushing. In their five losses, they allowed 104, 159, 150, 189 and 158 yards rushing. Taking the stat one step further, the Patriots are 1-4 when allowing 150 or more yards on the ground.
The Patriots can give up yards through the air and win – they are 3-1 allowing 300 yards or more passing, even though they’ve allowed just one offense to pass for more 250 yards since Week 9. Stopping the run is the real must in the playoffs, as the Patriots need to give their offense as many opportunities as possible to put points on the board and win the game.
A victory today and the Patriots will travel to Arrowhead next Sunday to take on the Kansas City Chiefs with a berth in the Super Bowl on the line.