New England Patriots: W2W4 Divisional Playoff Game vs Los Angeles Chargers
By Hal Bent
LAC PASSING OFFENSE vs NE PASS DEFENSE
For all the talk of the decline of 41-year-old quarterback Tom Brady, his statistics are nearly identical to 37-year old Philip Rivers, who was discussed nationally as an MVP candidate during the season. If Brady’s play had declined as Rivers’ has in December and January, the talking heads in the national media would be having a field day discussing his “falling off a cliff”.
Rivers has thrown six interceptions and just five touchdowns in his past five games (including playoffs). In those five games, he threw for 300+ yards just once (against Kansas City’s weak secondary), and has not thrown for 200 yards in the past three games. In addition, he has been sacked 12 times in the past five games.
The Los Angeles passing attack focuses on spreading the ball around. Rivers is a savvy veteran who looks for the open receiver and is not often fooled by coverage schemes. His primary target is the quick and disciplined route-runner Keenan Allen. Allen led Los Angeles with 136 targets, 97 receptions,1,196 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns.
The big-play and red-zone target is 2017 first-round draft pick Mike Williams. Williams is blazing fast, with long arms and length at six-foot-four and a solid weight of 220 pounds. The Clemson product led the Chargers with 10 touchdowns, and they were 6-1 in games he caught a touchdown. On the other side is the underrated Tyrell Williams, who had over 650 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns in his own right.
Allen loves to line up in the slot in the Chargers’ primary three-wide receiver set, and despite the national and local media’s assertion of the Patriots aligning All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore on Allen, it actually might not make much sense. The Patriots rarely put Gilmore on the slot wide receiver; with Mike Williams a real threat due to his size and big-play threat on the boundaries, look for Gilmore to cover him most of the game.
That leaves Jason McCourty–who has taken over for Jonathan Jones at slot cornerback–responsible for Allen. McCourty will likely get plenty of help in coverage from the safety group, and Allen should see plenty of bracket coverage. Tyrell Williams will face the Patriots undrafted rookie cornerback J.C. Jackson, who at six-foot-one is better prepared to face-off against the six-foot-four Tyrell Williams.
The Patriots’ safeties will have to keep an eye on savvy veteran tight end Antonio Gates on third down, and if Hunter Henry is indeed active after missing all season, he could also be a wild card. Also, the linebackers will have to be on their game with running backs Melvin Gordon (50 receptions) and Austin Ekeler (39 receptions) used early and often in the passing game.
New England can help their pass defense with a strong pass rush. The Chargers have struggled at times in pass protection. Veterans Russell Okung, Mike Pouncey, and Michael Schofield are the best blockers of the bunch. Second-year players Dan Feeney (left guard) and Sam Tevi (right tackle) are the two potential weak spots for the Patriots to target.
Pro Football Focus was not impressed with the Chargers’ offensive line in 2018. They ranked them 30th of 32 NFL teams, with only the Dolphins and Cardinals ranked below them. Especially in pass protection they struggled, and their improvement has been vastly overblown. They still employ the lowest-graded guard and tackle in pass protection this season. Left guard Dan Feeney allowed 8 sacks and 8 more hits, while right tackle Sam Tevi has given up 8 sacks and 12 hits.
The Chargers’ offense has struggled to move the ball through the air, while the Patriots’ secondary has improved as the season progressed. If the pass rush can create pressure and force Rivers into a few mistakes, the Patriots may be able to hold down the potent Chargers’ air game.