What should we expect from Tom Brady against the Chargers?

Under heavy criticism all season long, how will Tom Brady perform this Sunday with the New England Patriots‘ season on the line?

Sunday’s game against the Chargers is perhaps the toughest challenge the Patriots have had in the Divisional Round in recent memory.

Of course it comes in a year where Brady’s stats have declined and where it looks like age is finally catching up with him. So what should we expect from Tom Brady? Should we expect to see the same guy we have seen all year? Or the Tom Brady from years past?

In Brady’s last four Divisional Round playoff games, which have all been at home, Brady has had an average passer rating of 93.47. The number is only that low because of the 2016 game versus Houston, where Brady only completed 47.4% of his passes and threw two picks.

In the other three games, Brady completed right around 66% of his passes and had a touchdown to interception ratio of 8-1.

The most accurate representation we have for Brady against this current Chargers team is his performance against last year’s Chargers team. In that 21-13 victory at Gillette, Brady threw for 333 yards, just one touchdown, no picks, and was sacked three times.

History tells us that Brady against Phillip Rivers is a favorable match-up; we have all seen the graphic. He’s 7-0 against Rivers in his career, the Chargers have to travel across three time zones, it will be cold, and all the rest of it.

The one thing to keep in mind is that this is perhaps the best Chargers team the Patriots have faced in years. More importantly, this is also maybe the worst Patriots team to take the field in years, and Brady’s worst season in five or so years.

I actually expect Brady to have one of his best games of the season, but only if the protection holds up. The Chargers’ Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are a handful, and both players know how to get to the quarterback… which could cause a lot of problems for the Patriots on offense.

Brady has been more timid this season than in other years, so some real pressure could stifle the passing attack.

If the offensive line holds up and plays a good game, Brady will look like the old Brady, and will light the Chargers up. But poor offensive line play will lead to a skittish-looking Tom Brady and a dysfunctional offense… sort of like what we saw earlier this year against Pittsburgh.

One thing that bodes well for the Patriots is their ability to utilize running backs in the passing game. The Chargers currently rank 28th in the NFL in defending pass-catching backs, which is a statistic that should have Bill Belichick chomping at the bit to get James White more involved in the offense than he has been in recent weeks.

During the regular season, White ranked in the top three of all running backs in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving yards per game; he also ranked first in receiving touchdowns. White, coupled with Rex Burkhead – who is another formidable option in the passing game – should both be dangerous weapons for Brady.

If the Patriots can protect Brady, get White heavily involved, and have Rob Gronkowski draw defenders, Brady should be fine in this game. Julian Edelman will serve as a solid security blanket for him, and Phillip Dorsett has also proven to be consistent when targeted.

Like I said, it all comes down to the protection. That will be the difference in whether Brady has one of his best games of the season or another mediocre performance, and it could just be the deciding factor in this one.

Look for a huge game from James White and Phillip Dorsett.