Patriots probably should be rooting for the Texans today

Out of all three possible divisional round opponents, the Texans represent the clearest path back to the AFC Championship Game for the Patriots.

In a matter of hours, the New England Patriots could know who they’ll face in their first game of the 2018/2019 NFL playoffs. If the Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts, Deshaun Watson and the Texans will come to Foxborough next Sunday. If the Texans fall to their division rival, then the Patriots will host the winner of the Baltimore/Los Angeles game tomorrow.

All three of their potential opponents in the next round present their fair share of challenges.

Both the Ravens and the Texans have mobile quarterbacks – something the Patriots have historically struggled with containing and keeping in front of them. All three teams have Top Ten scoring defenses, so New England’s offense could struggle to put up points. And at least one of the head coaches – Baltimore’s John Harbaugh – has already shown he has no fear bringing his team into Gillette Stadium and delivering a playoff win.

Whichever team ends up on the opposing sideline next Sunday, they no doubt will represent the greatest challenge the Patriots have faced thus far this season. That said, one team might represent a slightly more favorable path back to the AFC Championship Game than the others: the Houston Texans.

Yes, they have a dangerous dual-threat quarterback helming their attack. The difficulty for Houston, however, is keeping that quarterback upright.

The Texans’ offensive line has been porous at best, downright horrific at worst. Watson’s “shield” allowed a ludicrous 62 sacks during the regular season – the worst mark in the NFL since 2006. Per ProFootballFocus, they were also the worst run-blocking unit in the league.

That combination could prove disastrous for the Texans’ chances of a deep playoff run. If they can advance past Indianapolis, they’d be tasked next with keeping pace with Tom Brady and the Patriots offense – a tall order, especially in the playoffs, especially in Boston.

Even more importantly, conventional wisdom states that the absolute best way to beat the Patriots is to run the ball, control the clock, and keep Brady safely on the sideline and away from the end zone. How can the Texans do that if they can’t establish their ground game? Lamar Miller still has some juice left in his legs, but if his offensive line is unable to produce big enough holes for him to run through, he’s not young or capable enough of creating them on his own.

The Texans’ dearth of offensive weapons should also be alarming for Houston fans. Their second and third-best receivers (Will Fuller and Demaryius Thomas) are lost for the season on injured reserve. DeAndre Hopkins is an otherworldly player, but if All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore can shut him down, the Texans suddenly become fairly one-dimensional.

It’s certainly not the end of the world if the Ravens or Chargers end up coming to Foxborough next weekend, but for a bevy of reasons, Patriots fans should be quietly pulling for the Texans to prevail today against the Colts.