New England Patriots: What to root for over Wild Card Weekend

1. Far from an easy out, Houston is still the safest pass for the Pats to advance… so cheer for the Texans.

Michael Salfino over at FiveThirtyEight didn’t mince words when assessing the Patriots’ outlook on the Colts/Texans Wild Card game, and what it could mean for New England down the road:

“New England really gets tested if the Colts win. (They would have to play the winner of Baltimore-LAC.) If the Texans win, Houston is just made for an easy Patriots victory in the divisional round.”

“Easy” might be a bit of an exaggeration. The Texans still have one of the most ferocious D-lines in the NFL, and it’s not hard to imagine wrecking machines like J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Jadeveon Clowney making life miserable for Brady next Sunday in Foxborough.

That said, the Patriots’ offensive line remains one of the team’s strengths, and finished the 2018 regular season ranked No. 5 according to ProFootballFocus. The unit would be rested and ready after two full weeks off – not to mention all the time they’d have to study up on the tendencies of the players they’d be going up against.

Their counterparts down south, the Texans’ offensive line, not only finished No. 23 in those same rankings – they also slotted out as the second-worst line among all playoff qualifiers.

And while the Patriots don’t have anywhere near the pedigree in their pass rush that Houston enjoys, on paper at least the two situations are massive mismatches. The Texans’ defensive front versus the Patriots’ run-blockers/pass-protectors seems like a wash. Conversely, the Patriots’ defensive front versus the Texans’ run-blockers/pass-protectors tilts in favor of New England.

Bill Belichick’s team also has other advantages over Bill O’Brien’s. The Patriots are superior to the Texans in just about every offensive statistical category, and their defense also narrowly edges outs the Texans in most passing categories as well. The one area Houston’s defense shines over New England’s is against the run, which could be problematic for the Patriots since so much of their success this season has come on the ground.

In the end though, it feels like most of the dynamics in a rematch of the first week of the regular season would favor the Patriots. That’s not to say a win would come easy – just that it might come easier than it would against the Ravens or Chargers.

Save the true uphill battle for the AFC Championship Game, played against either one of those teams in Foxborough… or even worse, against the Chiefs in Kansas City.