New England Patriots: AFC Championship Preview
On Sunday, the New England Patriots will be hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Title Game. Here is all you need to know.
2018 AFC Championship
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Sunday, January 21, 2018, at 3:05 p.m. EST
TV: CBS
One year ago, these teams couldn’t have been any more different. The New England Patriots (13-3) had clinched their sixth straight conference championship game, while the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) rued their second 3-13 season in three years, and their sixth consecutive double-digit loss season.
A lot can change in a year. For New England, that meant losing seven starters from their Super Bowl LI roster, including wide receiver Julian Edelman, linebacker Dont’a Hightower, and tight end Martellus Bennett. For Jacksonville, it meant going from the league’s 27th ranked defense in 2016 to the league’s second-best defense this season.
It’s been six months since these teams stepped on the field together. The Patriots hosted the Jaguars for joint training camp practices in August, prior to their first preseason game. Jacksonville would go on to win that matchup 31-24, but their workload was lightened with the majority of New England’s starters watching from the sideline.
The Patriots will face their toughest test of the season against Jacksonville’s defense, but halting New England’s league-best offense won’t be a walk in the park for the Jaguars.
WHO TO WATCH
Despite boasting the league’s second-best total defense (and the best passing defense at that), Jacksonville is an average team in regards to defending the run. Their run defense ranks twelfth in the NFL, and they’ve allowed over a hundred yards rushing in six of their last eight games. Patriots running back Dion Lewis should have no trouble picking up yardage against the Jaguars defense, and New England will be inclined to hand the ball off rather than testing their opponent’s secondary.
The key to stopping the Patriots’ offense is a pass rush that can pressure Tom Brady. The Broncos sacked Brady four times in the 2015 AFC Championship, the Jets sacked him five times in the 2010 Divisional Round, and the Giants dropped him another five times in Super Bowl XLII. That’s why it will be Jaguars defensive end Calais Campbell’s job to get Brady on the ground. Campbell had a career-high 14.5 sacks this season, the most of any player on Jacksonville’s roster. If Brady isn’t comfortable in the pocket, the Patriots will have a tough time moving the ball downfield through the air.
NEED TO KNOW
According to NFL Team Stats, New England’s league-best total offense averaged 394.2 yards per game during the regular season… Their passing offense finished second best, averaging 276.1 yards per game… The Patriots’ defense held six of their regular season opponents to under 10 points, and 10 opponents to under 20 points, per Pro Football Reference… According to Pats Pulpit’s Evan Lazar, Brady is 14-0 in the playoffs against teams New England did not face during the regular season…
Jacksonville’s second-best total defense allowed an average of 286.1 yards per game during the regular season… They ranked second in sacks with 55, as well as interceptions with 21… Their league-best passing defense allowed an average of 169.9 yards per game, 22.5 yards less than the second-best pass defense… They boasted the league’s best rushing offense during the regular season, averaging 141.1 yards per game…
INJURY REPORT (As of Thursday, January 18, 2018, via Patriots.com)
Patriots
- Brady (right hand) did not practice after suffering a hand injury during Wednesday’s practice, however, ESPN’s Mike Reiss reported he “was present for warmups.”
- Offensive tackle LaAdrian Waddle (knee) did not practice.
- Defensive tackle Alan Branch (knee), and running backs Rex Burkhead (knee) and Mike Gillislee (knee), were limited.
Jaguars
- Free safety Tashaun Gipson (foot) did not practice.
- Strong safety Barry Church (shoulder), defensive lineman Malik Jackson (ankle), and running back Leonard Fournette (ankle) were limited.
- Quarterback Blake Bortles (right wrist), offensive lineman Patrick Omameh (illness), and linebacker Paul Posluszny (abdomen) were full participants.
Next: Bill Belichick is in a class of his own
PREDICTION: Patriots, 24, Jaguars, 10.
It’ll be a feeling out process at first, as Brady adjusts to Jacksonville’s defense, but a strong second half sees New England en route to back-to-back Super Bowl berths.