New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers statistical preview
By Luke O'Brien
New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers statistical game preview.
The New England Patriots are playing the Los Angeles Chargers at probably the worst time possible. After opening the season 0-4, they have rattled off victories against the New York Giants, Oakland Raiders and pitched a shutout against the Denver Broncos.
Anthony Lynn has quietly kept his team’s spirit high after a few narrow defeats and it is now paying dividends. This week we will look at a few standout statistical positives and negatives for the Patriots and their opponent.
The Streak must go
Both the Patriots and Chargers head into this game on three-game winning streaks. Whilst this might not seem particularly significant, as we know momentum can be critical in the short NFL season.
New England Patriots
The Patriots will want to prove that their performance against the Atlanta Falcons wasn’t an anomaly. They looked as close to their 2016 form as they have at any time during the 2017 season.
The Chargers, on the other hand, will want to stake a claim in the open fare that is the AFC West. 4-4 will look a lot better than 3-5 and keep them away from the “must win” mentality, especially with the increasingly dangerous Jacksonville Jaguars on the horizon.
To Pass or Run?
Whilst the Patriots are traditionally a pass-first team, looking at the Chargers run and pass statistics, it might make Josh McDaniels reconsider his run versus pass balance.
The Chargers have conceded 984 yards against the run so far whilst only giving up 1,298 through the air. To add context, the Patriots have rushed for 775 yards and passed for 2,100. I am not by any means saying that the Patriots should hitch their wagon to Mike Gillislee, Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead and James White, far from it, but a team conceding an average of 4.9 yards per rush should be capitalized upon.
Despite missing Jason Verrett, the secondary made up of Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, Jahleel Addae and Tre Boston have given up the 5th least amount of yards through the air in the NFL (185.4 yards per game). Just take a look at this stat from last week:
Casey Hayward shadowed Demaryius Thomas on 84% of routes in Week 7. Hayward shut Thomas out with 0 catches on 2 targets in his coverage.
— Jeff Ratcliffe (@JeffRatcliffe) October 23, 2017
The Pass Rush
The Patriots have struggled all season with quarterback protection. This may not have directly resulted in a huge amount of sacks, 18 in total, but they are giving up a lot of pressures.
For LA, stopping the pass rush and also getting to the quarterback has been a strength. Anthony Lynn has done an excellent job, especially on the offensive line, turning it from one of the worst units in the league into an asset. As a result, the Chargers have only allowed 10 sacks in six games, which includes two games against the dangerous Broncos defensive line.
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On the opposite side of the ball, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have combined for 16 sacks already this season. One interesting statistic is that the Chargers 23 sacks are spread among four players who are all de-facto defensive linemen.
The Patriots, in contrast, have their 15 sacks, spread amongst seven players with 4.5 coming from the middle linebacker position. Neither team has had a sack from a defensive back yet. It will be intriguing to see if the teams spot this in their self-scouting and if we will see one this week.
Return of the Punt
Bill Belichick is known for placing a premium on the kicking game. He has waxed lyrical at times over opponent’s punters such as Sam Koch, Johnny Hekker and Thomas Morstead. Something that should be considered, though, in this game is the Chargers’ returners versus the Patriots’ punt coverage.
Travis Benjamin has averaged 10.3 yards per return this year and has taken one back for a touchdown. Benjamin posses elite speed, having run a 4.36 40-yard dash at the Combine in 2012.
The Patriots, by contrast, have one of the best punt coverage teams in the NFL with Brandon King, Jonathan Jones, Johnson Bademosi and of course Matthew Slater. So far they have only allowed an average of 6.5 yards with the longest return being only 16 yards.
Next: Fantasy Football: 5 Players to play in Patriots vs Chargers
All statistics are courtesy of NFL.com