New England Patriots vs New York Jets: Game Six Preview and Prediction

WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL WIN:

• The pass defense takes advantage of a favorable match-up

• Tom Brady takes advantage of a weak pass rush to make big plays downfield

• New England figures out how to run the football

1. The pass defense takes advantage of a favorable match-up

Little was expected of the New York Jets offense. So far in 2017, they have overachieved and no one more than journeyman quarterback Josh McCown. Despite a spotty career as a backup in Arizona, Detroit, Oakland, Carolina, Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland he has so far completed 71.4% of his passes going into week six (all statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted).

McCown relies on his years of experience to make intelligent and conservative decisions. If blitzed, he is experienced enough to diagnose it and make the defense pay. He is not mobile and is susceptible to defenses playing tight man coverage and pressuring with four rushers. In 2017 he has averaged just 204 yards passing per game.

This week should be a good match-up for a New England pass defense which has struggled in stopping opposing quarterbacks. Last week against Tampa Bay they played much more match-up man-to-man coverage with cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore matched-up on a specific receiver and on the line of scrimmage and aggressively jamming them knowing there was two-deep safety coverage over the top.

That strategy is perfect for a Jets squad with a weak offensive line and a quarterback who prefers to dink-and-dunk. Unfortunately, late on Saturday the Patriots released news that cornerback Stephon Gilmore would miss the game with a concussion. Now what looked like a chance for New England to dominate is now a situation where they need to patch together a defensive backfield.

New England should match-up Malcolm Butler against similarly top threat Jermaine Kearse. Third wide receiver Robby Anderson is the deep threat but has trouble with drops and will be likely facing-off against the speedy Jonathan Jones. That leaves slot receiver Jeremy Kerley to face-off against special teams player Jonathan Badamosi or a combination of safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung covering in the slot.

The Jets passing offense is not going to trick the Patriots defense and they are not going to have McCown running around outside the pocket causing chaos and extending plays to take a shot downfield. This is the best match-up the Patriots defense will have this season and even without Gilmore need to make an impact with a strong performance.

1. Tom Brady takes advantage of a weak pass rush to make big plays downfield

Tom Brady leads the NFL in passing yards through five weeks having completed 68.2% of his passes for 1,702 yards and 11 touchdowns against just one interception. In addition, he is averaging a league-leading 8.7 yards per attempt leading the Patriots to the top passing attack in the NFL so far in 2017.

New England made a conscious decision to push their offense up the field vertically rather than their horizontal attack that has been in place since they traded Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings in October 2010. This offseason they packaged their first-round draft pick to New Orleans in exchange for explosive wide receiver Brandin Cooks.

Brady has been sacked 16 times in 2017 through five games while having been sacked just 15 times last season over 12 games. Fortunately for New England, the Jets pass rush has struggled to generate pressure with a woeful total of just seven sacks so far this season. Last season defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson stumbled from 12 sacks in 2015 to just 4.5 last season. Through five games he does not have a single sack.

New England Patriots

Across the line from him at defensive end is 23-year old 2015 first-round draft pick Leonard Williams. Williams had just three sacks as a rookie but exploded last season into a dominant force earning a Pro Bowl selection and piling up seven sacks. This season he has yet to bring down a single quarterback.

Both are still dangerous interior pass rushers and part of the reason for their lack of production has been extra attention. A review of the game-tape from last week shows the Browns game-planned to give the duo extra attention and extra blockers and put the pressure on outside linebackers Jordan Jenkins and David Bass (and Kony Ealy when healthy).

The five sacks on the season for the Jets have come from the inside linebackers (3.0) and the secondary (2.0). The defensive line and outside linebackers have inexplicably been shutout.

Tom Brady and the Patriots passing offense should be able to neutralize the Jets pass rush on Sunday. If Brady has time to stand in the pocket and scan the field he is almost unstoppable. This should be the week the offensive line is able to give Brady time to make a number of big passing plays.

1. New England figures out how to run the football

New England was clearly fed-up with running back LeGarrette Blount by the last quarter of the 2016 season. His playing time dropped and veteran Dion Lewis picked-up the bulk of the carries down the stretch into the playoffs. For the three postseason games Blount was held to 35 carries for just 109 yards (3.5 yards per attempt) and had a costly fumble in the Super Bowl against the Falcons.

New England let him walk and added two new running backs in career back-ups Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead. Despite the new faces, New England has been inconsistent in the running game.

Gillislee leads the team with 246 yards rushing and four touchdowns, but is averaging just 3.6 yards per rush. In addition, he has hurt the offense by failing to convert tough yards in critical situations. So far he has failed to convert a number of times on third and fourth-and-short situations.

Just last week it was a second-and-one he could not convert in the second quarter that led to New England passing on third-and-one and Brady absorbing an unnecessary sack on third down. The Patriots inefficiency led to a punt giving Tampa Bay good field position and they marched down and scored to take the lead.

Burkhead was injured in week two and has missed the last three games and will be out of the lineup again on Sunday. Against Tampa Bay on Thursday it was Dion Lewis who stepped up with seven carries for 53 yards Gillislee did have a more productive game with 52 yards on 12 carry.

The Jets have allowed opponents to rush for 175 or more yards in three of their five match-ups this season. The Patriots–especially with a weakened secondary on defense–need to run the ball effectively to take pressure off Tom Brady and help their offensive line slow down the Jets pass rushers.