New England Patriots vs Houston Texans: Game Three Preview and Prediction
By Hal Bent
WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL WIN
- Bill Belichick is 8-0 vs rookie quarterbacks
- Tom Brady will be facing a depleted Houston secondary
- Using the running backs and screen game to slow the ferocious Houston pass rush
Deshaun Watson will be trying to fly in the face of history as he takes on Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia’s New England defense. The Patriots’ defense has allowed 62 points in their first two games but face a Houston offense that has two touchdowns in two games. Given Belichick’s ability to confound veteran quarterbacks, he has had success against the fresh-faced youngsters.
Watson is a mobile quarterback who has struggled with accuracy in the pocket and makes his best plays breaking containment and picking up first downs with his scrambling ability or passes on the run outside the pocket. That means a heavy dose of zone defense, defensive ends containing Watson in the pocket rather than getting after him, and a very vanilla defense designed to wait until Watson makes a mistake.
On offense, Brady faces a Houston defense bereft of talent in the secondary. Last year cornerback A.J. Bouye had a breakout season and was one of the five best cornerbacks in the league. He left to Jacksonville as a free agent and Houston simply planned to plug in 2016 first-round draft pick Kevin Johnson.
Johnson played well the first two weeks before spraining his knee and is now expected to miss four to six weeks. Houston’s veteran cornerback Johnathan Joseph was also banged up last week but should play despite his shoulder injury. Without Johnson, the Texans have Joseph and slot corner Kareem Jackson who saw some time at safety this summer as he’s closing in on age 30 soon.
Behind that duo, Houston lacks solid cornerbacks. Marcus Burley–who had been cut by Cleveland this summer–stepped in at the slot while Jackson moved outside against Cincinnati. Rookie fifth-round draft pick Treston Decoud was not able to even get on the field with the defense. If Brady can get match-ups with Burley or Decoud he will be keyed in on that receiver.
Houston has three strong pass rushers in J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. However, two of their three sacks so far have been from Benardrick McKinney. Their trio of pass-rushers has yet to record a sack.
That does not diminish their potential impact on Sunday. Last year in the Divisional Playoff round, Houston harassed Brady and that was without Watt. However, the Patriots do have a weapon to combat the Houston pass rush.
With Mike Gillislee in the backfield the Patriots may be able to establish a running game and keep the Houston pass-rushers from teeing off on Brady. In addition, running backs James White and Dion Lewis can be used out of the backfield to pass-block, in the screen-passing game, and as receivers to combat the pass rush.
A strong running game will keep the defensive ends setting the edge rather than penetrating and force the interior pass rushers to maintain gap control rather than getting after the quarterback. If the running backs are coming out of the backfield as part of the screen game or running patterns, the linebackers and edge rushers will be occupied with them rather than rushing the quarterback.