New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Preview, Odds, Prediction
By Hal Bent
PREVIEW:
The New England Patriots are facing the Pittsburgh Steelers in a rematch of their Week 7 matchup. The Patriots won 27-16 in that game which featured an undermanned Steelers team which was missing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. New England overcame two turnovers and shut down Le’Veon Bell to win the game which was closer than the score indicated.
The Patriots are facing a Steelers team that is coming off a huge road win over the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional round. While the Patriots struggled to put away a Houston team with a terrible offense (but underrated defense), the Steelers beat one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL without scoring a touchdown.
With Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown all healthy, the Steelers’ offense remains dangerous. This trio is probably the most dangerous trio in the NFL since Dallas had Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin lighting up defenses in the 1990s. Roethlisberger is a slam-dunk Hall of Fame quarterback, Bell is arguably the best running back currently (a case could be made for Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson or LeSean McCoy), and Brown is a top-three if not the best wide receiver in the NFL (Julio Jones or A.J. Green could possibly be considered a tick ahead).
New England’s defense remains difficult to figure out how good they are in 2016. They have faced a line-up of bad quarterbacks this season. Beating Brock Osweiler (twice), Landry Jones, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Matt Moore, Trevor Siemian, Jared Goff, and Colin Kaepernick is hardly a group that truly a defense.
The Patriots’ offense has matched-up well against the Steelers in the Belichick era. Pittsburgh has a strong front-seven and a young secondary. Their pass defense has improved since struggling early in 2016. The Steelers success has been predicated on the edge pressure from James Harrison and Bud Dupree.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the Patriots’ offensive line is strongest on the edges with Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon. Inside pressure without blitzing slows the Patriots’ offense, but the Steelers’ only interior rusher (Cameron Heyward) of note is on injured reserve. Interior defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt has four sacks, but he rarely is very disruptive as a pass-rusher.
The other problem for Pittsburgh is their zone defense. While Ryan Shazier is a ball-hawk in the middle of the defense, he–or fellow inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons–is often stuck in coverage of tight ends and even wide receivers. They are great tacklers and most teams do not have the discipline pile up short passes and put together double-digit drives.
The Patriots’ offense is built exactly to do what the Steelers allow on defense. Brady will take the open underneath route to Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, tight end Martellus Bennett, or his running backs all night long.
At this point of the season, the game comes down to which team enforces their will on the other. Playing at home gives the Patriots an advantage, but both Dallas and Kansas City learned last week that a home-field advantage only means so much.