New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: Top 5 Matchups in NFL Week 17
By Hal Bent
2. New England Linebackers vs Jay Ajayi
The Miami offensive line has also played well in springing running back Jay Ajayi and likely sending him to the Pro Bowl this year. Ajayi was benched for disciplinary reasons in Week one and did nothing against the Patriots in week two. In that first match-up he rushed five times for just 14 yards.
Ajayi busted out in week six with 204 yards against Pittsburgh, 214 the next week against Buffalo, and then 111 against the Jets in week nine. Since then, defenses have stacked the box to slow Ajayi and he did not reach 80 yards rushing in a game again until last week when he again ripped up Rex Ryan’s defense for 206 yards on the ground.
Prior to lighting up Buffalo last week, in the six prior weeks he rushed for 79, 77, 45, 61, 48, and 51 yards. In three of the last five games he averaged less than three yards per attempt. The numbers raise more questions than answers about what version of Ajayi shows up on Sunday.
New England benched starting defensive tackle Malcom Brown last week due to allegedly arriving late to practice. Like with Jabaal Sheard earlier in the season, Bill Belichick seems determined to push this defense to perform at their peak level and is doing so very publically. Brown leads the defensive tackles in sacks with three.
Last week was rookie Vincent Valentine’s first start and he acquitted himself well. For a draft pick who was lampooned by certain draft experts (Yes, walterfootball.com, USAToday, NFL.com, and everyone in the state of Nebraska, I remember. For the record, I graded him as a “B”), Valentine has been motivated, strong at the point of attack, and even shown occasional ability to penetrate into the backfield.
Alan Branch–who was suspended by the team in the preseason–ended up beating out Terrance Knighton (aka Pot Roast) in the preseason to keep his roster spot and starting role and has continued to be a beast in stopping the run. Teaming with inside linebacker Dont’a Hightower (who is questionable to play with a knee injury after missing the game last week), Branch has been a huge part of the improved run defense.
The Patriots gave up 111 yards rushing to the Jets last week snapping a four week run allowing less than 65 yards rushing. For the season the Patriots are third in the NFL allowing just 1,342 yards on the ground in 15 games. They have allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (6), and are ninth in the NFL in yards per attempt allowing just 3.9 yards per rush.
For Miami to beat the Patriots, they will need Ajayi to break off a number of long rushes for big chunks of yardage. In his top four rushing games of the season, Ajayi has rushed for 40 first downs (with five touchdowns). In the other ten games, he has made just 21 first downs three touchdowns.
Basically, Ajayi has 735 yards in four games and 478 yards in the other ten games. Ajayi is basically feast or famine. Other than one big game against the Steelers, one game against the dysfunctional Jets, and two games against the horror show which was the Buffalo Bills defense and Ajayi has been average to below-average.
New England’s big, strong defensive line needs to set the tone early stuffing Ajayi and putting the Dolphins’ offense in second and third-down-and-long situations. If they can do that, they can make Miami one-dimensional and improve their chances of victory.