New England Patriots Recent Drafts Key to Success in 2016
By Hal Bent
The New England Patriots enter the 2016 season with a remarkable run of success unequaled in the modern post-free agency NFL. Love them or hate them, the Patriots’ record of success has been supplemented by a Hall of Fame quarterback, the greatest modern coach in the league, and solid personnel moves–particularly in the NFL Draft.
The Patriots struck gold finding quarterback Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft, but they added the core of their championship dynasty over the next few drafts. In 2001 they added defensive tackle Richard Seymour and offensive tackle Matt Light. In 2002 tight end Daniel Graham, wide receivers Deion Branch and David Givens, and pass rusher Jarvis Green. The 2003 NFL Draft exceeded expectations with five contributors including defensive tackle Ty Warren, defensive backs Eugene Wilson and Asante Samuel, center Dan Koppen, and seventh round outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain.
The ability to keep young, inexpensive talent flowing into Foxboro, MA fueled the Patriots continued run. Whether a superstar dropping to them (Vince Wilfork in 2004) valuable roles players (Nick Kaczur, Ellis Hobbs, Matt Cassel and James Sanders with All Pro guard Logan Mankins in the 2005 NFL Draft) New England stayed strong. The only dip in the dynasty came from 2008 to 2010 and the poor drafts in 2006, 2007, and 2008 were a key part of the slippage. The 2006 NFL Draft netted kicker Stephen Gostkowski and a number of disappointments. In 2007 they got some value from safety Brandon Meriweather but no other draft pick contributed. In 2008 the Patriots drafted Jerod Mayo in the first round with their top-ten pick and found super-special teams star Matt Slater but the rest of the players failed to contribute.
The return to form coincided with the next four drafts giving the team ten major contributors to the team’s success. In 2009 (Patrick Chung, Sebastian Vollmer and Julian Edelman), 2010 (Devin McCourty and Rob Gronkowski), 2011 (Nate Solder, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley), and 2012 (Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower) the Patriots restocked their roster with a core of young players on both sides of the ball.
To continue their successful run of five consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances, the Patriots need their recent draft picks to become contributors in 2016 and beyond. While the current crop of rookies have been reviewed and graded incessantly over the past few weeks (see my Patriots NFL Draft Grades & Review here), the success of the team will hinge on the players of the past three drafts.
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/13/2016.
In 2013 the Patriots picked up two starters and a solid contributor. Linebacker Jamie Collins is one of the ten best players taken in the 2013 NFL Draft and at number 52 overall he has been the steal of the draft. In redrafting the 2013 NFL Draft only Eddie Lacy, Kyle Long, Ezekiel Ansah, Le’Veon Bell, Travis Frederick, and Sheldon Richardson (with Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce, and Kawann Short on the fringe) possibly rated higher than Collins. Collins is athletic and instinctive linebacker and is solid against the run, blitzing, and his quickness and off-the-charts athleticism allows him to help out in pass coverage. He is not only a starter but arguably one of the most valuable players on defense.
The Patriots also added a pair of Rutgers defensive backs in 2013 in the third round with cornerback Logan Ryan bouncing back from a rough sophomore season to start at cornerback and play 978 snaps on defense and break up eight passes, lead the team with four interceptions, and hold receivers in coverage to just 47 receptions for 700 yards on 92 targets (stats per NESN.com). Starting opposite undrafted free agent find Malcolm Butler, the Patriots benefitted from arguably the most inexpensive pair of starting cornerbacks in 2015.
In the secondary the Patriots boasted Ryan’s college teammate Duron Harmon as the nickel safety. In three seasons, he has six regular season interceptions and the game-clinching pick of Joe Flacco in the end zone in the 2014 Divisional Playoff game. Last year he had three interceptions and played over 50% of the snaps on defense.
In the 2014 NFL Draft the Patriots had an uncharacteristic swing and miss in the first round. Florida defensive tackle Dominique Easley mirrored the 2011 gamble of drafting oft-injured but supremely athletic cornerback Ras-I Dowling at number 33 overall out of Virginia. Like Dowling, Easley (who was taken at number 29 overall) had trouble staying on the field. This offseason, frustrated with his poor rehab and practice habits, the Patriots released their first round pick after just two years.
The Patriots also spent a second round pick on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Most NFL Draft analysts belittled the pick, but with Tom Brady potentially not playing in the first four games of the season Garoppolo has a chance to step-up in his stead. If Garoppolo can play well and prevent a slow start in the standings, he could justify his pick at number 62 overall in 2014.
The Patriots had three fourth round draft picks in the 2014 NFL Draft and the results are mixed. Center Bryan Stork contributed as a rookie, but injuries slowed him both in 2014 and last season. Running back James White flashed at times last year as a receiving running back after a redshirt rookie season, but his contributions going forward are still a question mark. Tackle Cameron Fleming flashed potential as a run blocker but his inconsistency in pass blocking has him fighting for a roster spot next year.
The 2015 NFL Draft featured defensive tackle Malcom Brown inexplicably dropping to New England at number 32 overall. Brown stepped in as a rookie and led the defensive tackles in playing time by playing 509 snaps. Brown is a run-stuffer with some push inside (three sacks and 11 hurries) who should be a solid contributor for years to come.
The rest of the draft class is an unknown. Fifth round draft pick Joe Cardona is a long-snapper but Naval obligations could pull him from the team anytime. With three defensive players taken in the second, third and fourth round, the Patriots got little production from them in 2015. Safety Jordan Richards played 239 snaps as the fourth safety on defense. Defensive ends Geneo Grissom (121 snaps) and Trey Flowers (four snaps) were invisible in 2015 and both will need to contribute more with 2015 starter Chandler Jones in Arizona and Rob Ninkovich a year older.
Richards may be in position to take time as the third safety from Duron Harmon and start pushing strong safety Patrick Chung. Flowers should be healthy and ready to contribute more as a pass rusher in 2016 and Grissom appears to be in line to to replace Ninkovich. Training camp and the preseason should be interesting as these 2015 draft picks begin pushing the veterans ahead of them for playing time in 2016.
On offense, fourth round draft picks Shaq Mason and Tre Jackson both played far more as rookies than anyone anticipated. Mason played 66% of the snaps and Jackson played 54% on the interior of the offensive line. However, their performance left much to be desired (like most of the rest of the offensive line). With young veterans Josh Kline and Jonathan Cooper in the mix, they both need to take a step forward under returning offensive line guru Dante Scarnecchia in 2016.
Although not playing at all in 2015, the most intriguing prospect from the 2015 NFL Draft could be Marshall cornerback Darryl Roberts. Roberts flashed NFL-level athleticism and quickness in training camp but injured his wrist in the first preseason game and was placed on season-ending injured reserve.
Roberts will be at full strength for 2016 and all eyes will be on him to replicate his 2015 preseason performance and add much needed depth to the cornerback position. He will compete with second-year cornerback Justin Coleman and 2016 second round draft pick Cyrus Jones for the third cornerback spot.
The jury is still out on these draft picks taken over the past three season, but the Patriots need to keep the pipeline of contributors coming in adding youth, athleticism and a low salary cap number on both sides of the ball. While the continued dominance of the AFC depends on the health of superstars Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Julian Edelman, the Patriots must have at least three or four contributors from each draft class contributing to each year.
Next: AFC Power Rankings: Pats top post-draft edition
The time is now for 2013, 2014, and 2015 draft picks to step up and make an impact on the field.