Analyzing the New England Patriots Offseason Moves
By Hal Bent
RE-SETTING THE DEFENSE:
The New England Patriots defense has been built from a liability to a top-ten unit over the past five seasons. Mixing valuable veterans with a young and athletic core, the Patriots now have to deal with a core of defenders ending their rookie contracts and hitting free agent together after the 2016 season. The Patriots had defensive ends Chandler Jones and Jabaal Sheard, linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower, and cornerbacks Malcolm Butler (restricted free agent) and Logan Ryan (as well as nickel safety Duron Harmon). With this many potential free agents, there is at least one if not more players who are not going to be able to be fit under the salary cap.
The first odd man out was Chandler Jones. Jones was shipped to Arizona for guard Jonathan Cooper and a second round draft pick this year. With pass rushers like Olivier Vernon (not as accomplished as Jones) and Malik Jackson cashing in, Jones’ value on the open market suddenly spiraled out of what New England would pay for a defensive end with a tendency to disappear in the bright lights.
Jones had 12.5 sacks last season and 11.5 in 2013 as he racked up 36 sacks in four years in New England. However, in nine postseason games (eight, really as he was inactive for most of the AFC Championship his rookie season due to injury) he had just two sacks. He disappeared against Denver the AFC Championship not getting near Peyton Manning and credited with just one tackle.
In fact, other than his sack in his first game as a rookie in 2012, it is hard to imagine a “signature” moment for Jones in New England. This is not intended to kick him on the way out the door–quite the opposite. He was a blessing for the defense and was able to exploit weaker offensive lines and pile up sacks in chunks, but against high quality left tackles he often was unable to make an impact when needed most.
Jones is not going to be easy to replace. It is a fact that the pass rush is instantly diminished with Jones in Arizona. Rob Ninkovich is not a pure pass rusher and Jabaal Sheard is good, but has not been the primary pass rusher before. That said, even with the interior defensive line losing Akiem Hicks, the Patriots made the right move in trading Jones.
Jones is looking at a five or more year deal with an average of at least $15 million per season (depending upon how team-friendly he decides to be) with at least $40 million or more guaranteed. That was never going to fly in New England. As effective as Jones has been, the Patriots had already decided to move on from Jones before the 2015 season started.
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Last May the Patriots drafted defensive ends Geneo Grissom and Trey Flowers in the third and fourth round respectively. Grissom is a Rob Ninkovich clone who should start the process of replacing the steady run-stopping left defensive end this season. Flowers (and scrap pile pickup Rufus Johnson) have legitimate pass rushing skills that need time to develop. The Patriots needed a stopgap for a season to see what the younger players can bring to the defense.
For that, they have Sheard and signed former St. Louis Rams star Chris Long. Long may be long in tooth, but he is still a talented, high-motor defensive end. Long has struggled with injuries but playing in a rotation at the position could revitalize him in the short-term. Veterans Andre Carter and Mark Anderson both got their career back on track playing a year in New England.
The loss of Akiem Hicks at defensive tackle puts more pressure on the pair of first round draft picks the past two season as Malcolm Brown and Dominique Easley (provided he can stay healthy at last) will have to handle more of the interior pass rush. While run-stuffer Sealver Siliga was not tendered a contract, the Patriots did pick-up the option on veteran defensive tackle Alan Branch. Branch makes a solid complement to the young players.
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A name to consider at the position is former teammate of Chris Long in St. Louis, Nick Fairley. Like Hicks, Fairley has athletic talent but has yet to fully realize it. A one-year deal with a chance to re-establish his value could lead him to Foxborough, MA this season. With only Frank Kearse (a depth player and special teamer at best), look for the Patriots to address the position again in the draft to continue building depth on the defensive line.
At linebacker the Patriots again went back to the Bears to snag another former first round draft pick with Shea McClellin who was taken two spots before Chandler Jones. Much like Akeem Ayers when New England snagged him from Tennessee in 2014, McClellin is a talented college pass rusher who has been moved around on defense so much he seems to lack a clear role anymore.
Ayers moved to defensive end in the 4-3 defense in New England and seamlessly replace Chandler Jones for a few months while Jones recovered from a hip injury. McClellin could team with Sheard and Long to replace Jones’ production on the edge. However, he fits the role of an off-the-line linebacker playing in space with pass rushing responsibilities. Look for the Patriots to try him in a role similar to Tedy Bruschi who evolved from edge defender to inside linebacker who was a primary blitzer. However he is used, he fits the model of the multi-position playing front seven player on defense.
The other former Chicago Bears linebacker still on the roster is Jonathan Bostic. A second round draft pick, he costs the team less than $1 million this season and has been overlooked since arriving. Whether he needed time to pick-up the defense and will be better after a full offseason and training camp in New England or if he simply is released after the draft is unknown. He is a under-the-radar defensive player with talent who played in a system that did not allow him to maximize his skills.
With McClellin and Bostic at linebacker there is depth (along with special teams ace Jonathan Freeney) behind the dynamic duo of Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins. Hightower has a high cap charge ($7.75 million) and any extension he works out with the team should lower his cap charge for 2016. If they can extend Hightower they can turn their attention to Collins and try to work out a way to keep him. They will need cap space as Collins’ cap charge is less than $1.2 million.
In the secondary the Patriots have been quiet this offseason. They lost former second round draft pick Tavon Wilson to the Lions, but he was already no longer part of their plans going forward. Safety Nate Ebner, primarily a special teams player, was re-signed this offseason while impressive young player Justin Coleman was kept on as well.
At safety the Patriots still have Duron Harmon entering the last year of his contract, starters Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty with multiple years on their contracts, and 2015 second round draft pick Jordan Richards. Harmon is an interesting player as he has shown promise as a free safety when McCourty slides up in a cornerback role, but his value on the open market next year may be higher than New England would match if another team sees him as a starter.
With Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler due to be free agents after the 2016 season (Butler would be a restricted free agent) New England will likely be continuing to add their secondary in the NFL Draft this may. Among free agents, most of the top targets at cornerback have signed elsewhere, but the Patriots may still bring back veteran Tarell Brown who played well in his three games in New England before being placed on injured reserve.
On defense the Patriots have made their first big move in trading Chandler Jones. Although they lost their top pass rusher, the additions of Chris Long and Shea McClellin have a chance to help pick-up some slack (at least on paper). While the team may not be improved on defense this season, they may be better positioned to keep the rest of their young core together in 2017 and beyond.
Next: Which offseason additions will be most impactful in 2016?
Stay tuned here on Musket Fire for coverage on every twist and turn in the Patriots’ offseason.