W2W4 in the AFC Championship Game: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos
By Hal Bent
When the Broncos Pass the Ball:
Peyton Manning was bit bad for Denver this season: he was downright atrocious. The numbers are downright shocking as he has completed just 59.8% of his passes (198 of 331) for 2,249 yards (5.0 yards per attempt) and has just 9 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
With Manning’s 5 of 20 passing performance for 35 yards and 4 touchdowns performance against Kansas City, he was replaced by Brock Osweiler. Osweiler went 14 of 24 for 146 yards with a touchdown and interception in relief of Manning and finished with 170 completions at a 61.8% completion rate this season throwing for 1,967 yards with 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He lead the Broncos over the Patriots in the first matchup in Denver and was benched in the final regular season game.
The most dangerous receiver is Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders has 76 catches for 1,135 yards and 6 touchdowns and can lineup anywhere on the field and run every route. He is quick, smart, and strong in the air going for the football. After the catch, he makes small gains into big plays much like Julian Edelman does in New England.
On the other side is six-foot-three athletic and fast wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. Thomas is coming off seasons of 94 receptions for 1,424 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2012, 92 receptions for 1,430 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2013, and 111 receptions for 1,619 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2014. This season he had 105 catches for 1,304 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in the first matchup against New England Thomas disappeared with just one reception on 13 targets as cornerback Logan Ryan played one of his best games in his Patriots career.
Having lost tight end Julius Thomas in free agency the Broncos brought in Kubiak favorite Owen Daniels. Daniels has been less than hoped for and Denver swung a deal to acquire veteran tight end Vernon Davis from the San Francisco 49ers. Davis has looked lost in Denver and has not had a reception since week 15. Look for Denver to have tight end Virgil Green in his customary role as blocking tight end on running downs and Daniels as the receiving tight end with Vernon Davis.
As far as the passing attack, the Patriots have had plenty of experience with the Kubiak/Dennison offense and facing Peyton Manning. Kubiak’s passing offense plays off the running game and play action. Stopping the passing game goes hand-in-hand with slowing the running game. Stretch plays and bootleg isolation passing plays are staples of the offense and defenders biting on play action opens space downfield.
The Patriots should be able to generate pressure on the Broncos with their strong pass rush. Defensive end Chandler Jones has emerged as one of the top pass rushers this season and will give left tackle Ryan Harris problems. Left guard Evan Mathis is solid but right tackle Michael Schofield will be put under pressure on the right side with defensive ends Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard. Louis Vasquez and center Matt Paradis are better run blockers than pass blockers and if New England can get rushers near Manning they need to bring him down.
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New England has multiple options for defending the Broncos in the passing game. Cornerback Malcolm Butler typically takes the top option and leaves Logan Ryan and Devin McCourty/Duron Harmon to double-cover or bracket the larger receiver. With his quickness and closing speed, Butler may be best suited to again draw the assignment covering Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and leaving Demaryius Thomas to Ryan and McCourty. It worked so well in week 12 that they will likely stay with it and crowd the line to slow the short passing attack.
Earlier in the season Denver went with the two-tight end and two receiver look but with Manning back at quarterback wide receivers Bennie Fowler, Cody Latimer, and Jordan Norwood have received more playing time in three wide receiver sets. When Denver goes to three wide receivers the Patriots will need rookie cornerback Justin Coleman to step forward with a strong performance to force the Broncos off the field on third down.
New England has Patrick Chung to handle one of the tight ends or third wide receiver. Chung has been a revelation again this season showing the promise he displayed when drafted. This week he should have Collins back to help. With Manning yet to prove he produce in back-to-back weeks this season, the Patriots are in good shape to slow the Denver passing attack.
ADVANTAGE: PATRIOTS
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