Patriots vs. Chiefs: Early Thoughts
By Cyrus Geller
The Patriots will host the Chiefs this Saturday in the first game of the NFL’s divisional slate. Kickoff is slated for 4:35 PM ET on CBS. We will have a whole week to analyze the game, but here are a few brief early thoughts to mull over as you enjoy the NFC action today.
1. Offensive Limitations
Don’t let the 11-game win streak fool you, the Chiefs are not a very good offensive football team. They weren’t very good coming into the playoffs, and now that they may be without Jeremy Maclin, they are even more limited. Travis Kelce is the only other viable pass catcher Alex Smith has, and the offensive line/running game is just average. In fact, the Chiefs were 27th in the league in sacks given up, so I expect New England’s second ranked pass rush to feast. Double Kelce, stack the box, and the Chiefs won’t be able to do much.
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2. Defense
There’s no denying it: Kansas City has a very good defense. They are 1st in scoring defense, 7th in total defense, 9th in run defense, 4th in pass defense, and they have the 4th most takeaways as well. They have a good pass rush, solid linebackers, and a secondary that is talented, and loves to play man coverage. However I think the Pats will be able to exploit them with quick routes on the inside, and going to Rob Gronkowski when he is left in a 1-on-1 matchup.
3. Quarterback
Alex Smith is the ultimate game manager. He will never take over a game and single-handidly win it for you, but at the same time, he won’t ever really lose it for you. However when you play Tom Brady in the playoffs at Gillette Stadium, you are going to have to score some points. Smith doesn’t push the ball downfield, and check-downs all game won’t outduel Brady with a healthy offensive cast. I don’t envision any scenario, barring a complete Patriots meltdown, where Smith scores more (possibly without his only wide receiver) than Brady and company.
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4. Turnover Margin
This will be a battle of two of the best teams in the league at taking care of the football, as these two teams were tied for tops in the league in fewest giveaways this season (0.9 per game). There is a difference in takeaways however, as the Chiefs were 4th with 2 a game, while New England was 23rd with 1.3 a game. We know both teams will be able to take care of the ball, but if one defense is able to come up with a takeaway or two, that could be the difference.
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Go Pats.