W2W4: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins in Week 17
By Hal Bent
When the Dolphins Pass the Ball:
Miami rebuilt their entire passing game in the past offseason. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was signed to a multi-year extension worth upwards of $45 million in guaranteed salary. Out went wide receivers Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson, and Brian Hartline and tight end Charles Clay; In came first round draft pick wide receiver DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, veteran Greg Jennings, and tight end Jordan Cameron.
Much like on defense, these players have not lived up to their expectations. While Tannehill still appears to be a franchise quarterback (regardless of what cornerback Brent Grimes’ wife thinks) and has thrown for 3,858 yards completing 61.7% percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions. As usual, he has been sacked a high percentage of times and has gone down 44 times. While some of that is on the offensive line, Tannehill still can hold the ball too long in the pocket when his first option is covered.
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Jarvis Landry continues to improve and become a true superstar wide receiver in his second season. Landry has a team high 155 targets and 104 receptions for 1,085 yards. The supporting staff is what has let down the Dolphins. Greg Jennings has been invisible with 15 catches in 15 games as a Dolphin. Kenny Stills has just 26 receptions in 15 games–although he has averaged 16.5 yards per reception.
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Tight end Jordan Cameron has caught just half his targets and has only 33 receptions despite getting the majority of playing time at tight end. Blocking tight end DIon Sims has 15 receptions in much less playing time. Rookie DeVante Parker has taken over as the starter more due to Miami having no other options and needing to see their first round draft pick in the offense rather than by outplaying the weak competition.
Parker has had 17 catches in the past five games but that is with 36 targets. He is a speedster and seems to finally be over the foot issues that plagued him early in the season. Parker is a deep threat–much like Kenny Stills–in an offense with a quarterback who struggles throwing the deep ball. Last week against Indianapolis he was targeted ten times but had just four receptions. However, one of those went for 49 yards and another catch-and-run ended up as a 20 yard reception.
Rishard Matthews is another wide receiver who was to have a major impact in Miami in 2015. Matthews is third on the team with 43 catches in just 11 games but was not having the breakout season in his fourth NFL season. The 26-year old had two 100-yard receiving games early in the season but inconsistent play plagued him. He fractured his ribs in the week 12 loss to the Jets and has not played since.
New England is coming off a game against two of the most difficult wide receivers to cover in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker of the New York Jets. After covering this duo of big, strong, smart wide receivers they face a different challenge in the Dolphins receiving group. Jarvis Landry is as difficult to cover as Julian Edelman with his speed, quickness, and smarts in the middle of the field. Landry runs every route from anywhere in the formation and his hands pull in any pass within his passing radius.
Malcolm Butler spent much of the initial matchup chasing Jarvis Landry and switching off on occasion to take Rishard Matthews. This week should see Butler on Landry again and Logan Ryan matching up on the speedy DeVante Parker. Ryan and Butler have continued to play better than anyone expected as they continue to maximize their athletic ability and compete on every single snap.
Where New England shut down the Dolphins in the prior matchup was in taking away the checkdown options. Linebacker Jamie Collins blanketed running back Lamar Miller and safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung were active in coverage of the Miami tight ends. Both safeties are questionable to play on Sunday (particularly McCourty) and the Patriots may be leaning on backups Jordan Richards and Duron Harmon again.
New England beat the Dolphins earlier in the season with a pass rush that Miami was unable to slow. Chandler Jones had a monster game against left tackle Branden Albert and linebacker Dont’a Hightower was disruptive as a blitzer. Now they will be without both of them on Sunday. New England was without Jabaal Sheard–one of their best pass rushers–and Akiem Hicks was still struggling to get on the field. Rob Ninkovich–who is questionable with a shin injury–took advantage of second year right tackle Ja’Wuan James’ injury to generate pressure on the overmatched Jason Fox.
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Although Chandler Jones has landed on the injury report with a toe injury and is already ruled out for Sunday and Ninkovich is banged up, the Patriots should be able to spell the duo with Sheard and rookie Geneo Grissom (who played well against Miami in the first matchup). Despite likely not having McCourty and potentially Chung, the Patriots should still be able to take advantage of an underperforming Dolphins unit to keep their passing game from doing too much harm on Sunday.
ADVANTAGE: PATRIOTS
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