W2W4: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins in Week 17
By Hal Bent
When the Dolphins Run the Ball:
The Miami Dolphins running game has been schizophrenic in 2015. Impending free agent running back Lamar Miller–who would be a spectacular fit in the New England offense in 2016–is averaging 4.6 yards per rushing attempt and has 812 yards on the ground to go with 46 receptions for 394 yards (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted). The problem with Miller remains usage and consistency.
Against New England in week eight, Miller had just 15 yards on 9 carries. He had games like week two against Jacksonville when he rushed 10 times for 14 yards, week 12 against the Jets with 5 rushes for 2 yards, and week 15 against San Diego with 12 yards on 9 rushes. Then he has had games such as week six at Tennessee (19 rushes for 133 yards), week seven against Houston (14 rushes for 175 yards), week 13 against Baltimore (20 rushes for 113 yards), and week 14 against the Giants (12 rushes for 89 yards).
Patriots-Dolphins BOLD PREDICTIONS
As the season winds down the Dolphins are taking a look at rookie fifth round draft pick Jay Ajayi out of Boise State. Ajayi dropped in the draft due to concerns of his knee. After starting the season on injured reserve, Ajayi returned in week nine and gave the running game a boost. Unfortunately, the Dolphins have had few games where they were not playing from behind and have to air the ball out to try and stay in the game.
Ajayi has 42 attempts on the season for 185 yards (4.4 yards per rush) and may have a larger role on Sunday. The offensive line has been unspectacular in Miami but they can run block when they put their mind to it. Rookie center Jamil Thomas has had to step in at center for Mike Pouncey who has had injury issues all season. Thomas has struggled as rookies tend to do in the NFL. Right tackle Jason Fox has been a turnstile and the Dolphins are hoping to get future star Ja’Wuan James back for the final game after missing half the season.
The Patriots defensive line should have an advantage in the running game against the Dolphins. They have allowed over 100 yards on the ground in three of the last five games after five straight weeks of holding them under 100 yards a game. The Jets rumbled for 143 yards on the ground last week and the defensive breakdown was a result of the New England players being beat in head-to-head matchups.
Dont’a Hightower was in and out of the lineup last week and if he could play against Miami it would be a boost to the run defense. Unfortunately, he has already been ruled out. In week eight, the Patriots held the Dolphins to 15 yards on the ground as they crushed the Dolphins 36-7. With Rob Ninkovich banged up and Chandler Jones ruled out with a toe injury, the defensive line will see more of Jabaal Sheard at his natural defensive end role and possibly more of third round draft pick Geneo Grissom.
4 things you should know about the Dolphins
In the interior of the defense, the Patriots will continue to highlight rookie defensive tackle Malcom Brown. Brown has continued to improve all season after starting slowly as he acclimated to the strength and size of NFL interior linemen. With Dominique Easley sidelined and one-dimensional run stuffer Sealver Siliga losing playing time (and on the injury report listed as questionable with the always intriguing “not injury related” designation), Brown, Akiem Hicks, and veteran Alan Branch have become the regulars on the interior of the defensive line.
Running the ball and stopping the run is a lot about attitude in the trenches. The Patriots are still playing for playoff seeding and need to win this game. The Dolphins have lost three straight, five of six, and seven of nine games. The Patriots game plan is going to involve trying to take Miller and Ajayi out of the game plan early in the game. They should be able to do so.
ADVANTAGE: PATRIOTS
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