New England Patriots: 6 bold predictions for 2015
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
1. The Patriots will have the best 2-point success rate in the NFL
Extra-point kicks have been moved back to the 15-yard line, but two-point attempts will remain at the two-yard line. From a statistical analysis perspective, it’s actually now a better bet to go for two after every touchdown.
Smart coaches will now generally go for 2 (roughly 0.99 exp pts) instead of 1 (now roughly 0.91 exp pts based on 2013-2014).
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) May 19, 2015
As they often are, expect the Patriots to be trend setters. Don’t be at all surprised to see Bill Belichick keeping the boys out there after scoring a touchdown, as the Patriots’ offense is designed to score inside the two-yard line.
LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray are two of the most powerful running backs in the league. Gray, in particular, will be useful because of his bruising north-south running style. If the Patriots run the ball on a two-point attempt, one of these guys will get the job done.
But when going for two, it’s wiser to pass the ball. No problem there: a slant or quick curl route to Edelman or LaFell is sure to score those two points (use LaFell’s touchdown in the Super Bowl for reference). And I haven’t even gotten to Gronk and Chandler, a pair of mammoth targets that should win just about any one-on-one matchup that close to the goal line.
And last but not least, there’s always Tom Brady’s quarterback sneak ability that’s almost always effective in short-yardage situations.