New England Patriots Brandon Lloyd 2012 Projection
Last season, St. Louis Rams quarterbacks averaged 6.0 yards per attempt, while Lloyd averaged 5.8 yards per target (Y/A when thrown to). For the Denver Broncos in 2011 he averaged 2.3 more yards per catch than Kyle Orton did when throwing it to him (8.6 to 6.3). When you factor in that he played 11 games for the Rams and four for the Broncos, the end result is that Lloyd had a higher yards per target rate than the QBs overall yards per attempt rate by about half a yard.
It must be noted that the Rams targeted Lloyd often when he was double covered or not open at all, leading to a deflated yards per target number. That will not be much of a problem for him in New England.
In his breakout 2010 season, Lloyd averaged 9.5 yards per target compared to a solid 7.4 yards per attempt average from the quarterbacks throwing it to him. Since the 2011 season was more recent, it should be weighed in more heavily by doubling 0.5 and then adding 2.1 to it while dividing by three.
Thus, Lloyd is projected to have a yards per target average that is about 0.9 yards higher than his quarterback’s yards per attempt average. Tom Brady should average 8.2 yards per attempt (based on weighing his past three seasons Y/A stats using the Marcel), thus allowing Lloyd to average 9.1 yards per target.
With 105 targets, that should give Brandon Lloyd about 956 yards of receiving on 64 catches if he averages 15 yards per reception. I also expect about five to seven touchdowns receptions for him. Overall, Lloyd should have a healthy statistical line, but he will miss out on 1,000 yards of receiving due to less targets. His role in the offense isn’t to be the number one option who gets the passes combing his way. In fact, he will most likely be the fourth most targeted player on the team. Lloyd holds a crucial role for the Patriots and greatly improves this team’s offense, but he isn’t going to get 1,000 receiving yards or 70 catches for that matter.
You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.