New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: Game Preview and Prediction

Nov 30, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 26-21. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The New England Patriots spent the week in the warm weather of Southern California not on a vacation but on a business trip. At 8:30pm Eastern time tonight the Patriots get to take care of business at Qualcomm Stadium for the first time since a disappointing 26-21 loss at Lambeau Field against the Packers last week. After breakdowns on offense (punting on consecutive drives in the first and third quarter, not able to score with a first down at the twenty-yard line late in the fourth quarter) and defense (allowing Green Bay to convert ten of 17 third-downs and hold the ball for over 36 minutes of possession), the Patriots need to increase their efficiency on both sides of the ball.

Nov 30, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) passes against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Chargers, however, are not a pushover like some of the teams New England has defeated this season. At 8-4, the Chargers have an explosive offense loaded with big-play potential and a deep defense led by two Pro Bowl level defenders in the secondary. The Chargers have suffered from injuries on both sides of the ball losing a number of key contributors. Their depth and the outstanding performance of quarterback Philip Rivers has allowed the Chargers to keep pace with the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs in a competitive AFC West.

PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS CHARGERS DEFENSE:

Nov 30, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) passes the ball during the second half against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Packers won 26-21. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

For some reason the Patriots offense got a pass in discussing the loss to Green Bay. Yes, Aaron Rodgers played well for Green Bay and their defense performed better than expected, but the Patriots started slow and came out of the half completely flat. Fifteen plays, 49 yards, two first downs, and four punts. That was the Patriots offense combined to do on their first two drives of the game and first two drives of the second half in Green Bay. For a team that has thrived with fast starts and putting games away in the third quarter, it was a surprise to see such struggles. This cannot continue against the Chargers.

The Chargers 3-4 front seven revolves around their two top linemen: defensive end Corey Liuget and outside linebacker Dwight Freeney. If there is going to be a pass rush from San Diego, it is this that brings the heat. The Chargers have just 18 sacks for the season and Liuget has three-and-a-half of them and Freeney has two sacks. Rookie second-round draft pick outside linebacker Jerry Attaochu has two sacks as a third-down pass rusher in his injury-plagued season.

Besides Liuget, the Chargers have little interior pressure as Kendall Reyes, Sean Lissemore, and Tenny Palepoi are just big bodies taking up space. Veteran outside linebacker Jarret Johnson has lost a step and 2012 first-round draft pick Melvin Ingram remains behind Freeney on the depth chart. Inside linebackers Donald Butler and Manti Te’o are part of an inside linebacker rotation with Kavell Conner, Reggie Walker, and Andrew Gachkar that fill gaps and take on running backs in the running game and do not provide much as far as pass rush or pass coverage.

Expect New England to lean on their two titanic tackles Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer to hold the line against Freeney and Attaochu. Solder has allowed just five sacks and 23 pressures total this season while Vollmer has allowed three sacks and 22 pressures (per ProFootballFocus.com–subscription required). Since the debacle in Arrowhead, both tackles have been even better just a combined 27 pressures in the last eight games after allowing 18 in the first four games of the season. While right guard Ryan Wendell and rookie center Bryan Stork have played well, right guard Dan Connolly has been slowed by an ankle injury and allowed three hurries, six hits, and a sack the past two weeks combined. The Patriots may want to turn to young guard Josh Kline if a hampered Connolly again gives up drive-killing pressures.

Nov 30, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount (29) during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 26-21. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers defense also has struggled against the run. Only four times they have held a team to under 100 yards rushing this season and three of those teams were the woeful New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Oakland Raiders who are currently a combined 5-31 so far in 2014. The Chargers substitute freely on defense as their depth keeps them fresh and helps keep them from being worn-down. It may be a week for the Patriots to attack with quick, no-huddle drives keeping the Chargers defenders from substituting and forcing them to play more snaps than they would usually be on the field. Look for a lot of hurry-up runs on first and second down as the Patriots run to the line after a completed pass and try to take advantage of the Chargers defense being stuck on the field.

The secondary is the Chargers strength, as safeties Eric Weddle and Marcus Gilchrist are a dynamic, hard-hitting duo. Cornerback Brandon Flowers has become a Pro Bowl level coverage back since coming over to San Diego from Kansas City. The loss of impressive first-round draft pick Jason Verrett for the season has hampered the Chargers pass defense. Shareece Wright is not good enough to start and is only playing due to the injury to Verrett. San Diego has been using safeties Darrell Stuckey and Jahleel Addae in their nickel package and leaning on Weddle and Gilchrist to pick up the slack in coverage.

The Chargers will likely have to use Weddle on tight end Rob Gronkowski with a lot of help from the linebackers. Weddle may not have the size, but he has the ball skills and toughness to take on the mismatch and be able to slow the Gronk on occasion. Flowers will likely move back-and-forth between Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, and quarterback Tom Brady should automatically look to whoever is covered by Wright. Wright is undersized and lacks elite quickness and change-of-direction and can be beat regularly by either receiver.  Look for tight end Tim Wright to find himself with Gilchrist or the linebackers in coverage. This looks like a great week for the Patriots to exploit match-ups in the Chargers secondary to their advantage and make some big plays downfield.

PATRIOTS DEFENSE VS CHARGERS OFFENSE:

Nov 30, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews (24) runs for a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers offense has survived injuries at running back and recently got top back Ryan Mathews back. Mathews topped 100 yards in his second game back against St. Louis but was negated last week by the Chargers falling behind against Baltimore. Mathews gives a semblance of a rushing attack to San Diego but this team is not built to run the ball 30 times a game. Outside of left tackle King Dunlap, there is not another offensive lineman in San Diego capable of making space.

Dunlap is the best pass and rush blocker on the line. The guards, veteran Chad Rinehart and Johnny Troutman, are below-average at best. Rookie center Chris Watt is the fourth center to cycle through this season as Pro Bowl center Nick Hardwick was lost for the season in week one, veteran Doug Legursky played just one game before landing on injured reserve as well, and former Patriot Rich Ohrnberger went on injured reserve after week nine. Watt was dinged up last week and former Bengals backup Trevor Robinson had to come on as center number five in San Diego.

The Patriots defensive line needs to step-up in San Diego. Vince Wilfork should be able to beat whoever he lines up against and generate inside pressure and disrupt the Chargers running game. Rookie Dominique Easley has struggled to make big plays but could break-out against the weak Chargers offensive line. Chris Jones has pushed the pocket well and with Sealver Siliga healthy again and veteran Alan Branch inside, the Patriots could have a huge game on defense stuffing the run and harassing Rivers with inside pressure collapsing the pocket.

Watt is questionable on the injury report as is right tackle D.J. Fluker. Fluker, the Chargers first-round draft pick in 2013 is big and strong, but still learning to have that game-to-game consistency. He suffered a concussion at practice Wednesday and is a game-time decision. The offensive line has struggled to give quarterback Philip Rivers time to throw which makes the performance of the fiery San Diego quarterback this season all the more amazing.

Nov 30, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson (87) attempts to catch a pass as New England Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis (24) defends during the first half at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Rivers has a number of targets with three different, but complementary, wide receivers and a pair of productive tight ends. Keenan Allen is the top receiver and seems likely to face All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis during the Sunday night matchup. The Patriots may have Brandon Browner on either six-foot-six wide receiver Malcom Floyd or six-foot-four tight end Antonio Gates. The health of slot cornerback Kyle Arrington is important (he is questionable with an ankle injury) as he will likely line-up opposite veteran Eddie Royal who torched the Ravens last week.

Without Arrington the Patriots may lean on cornerback Logan Ryan after a tough game where he was torched and benched in Green Bay. Alfonzo Dennard may get a chance to turn-around his disappointing 2014 season this week as he could cover either Floyd or help out on Royal. Normally, athletic linebacker Jamie Collins would be pencilled in to cover the opponent’s top tight end, but with Dont’a Hightower questionable with a shoulder injury, he could have additional duties. Perhaps mid-season acquisition Jonathan Casillas will get a shot to cover Gates or the underrated Ladarius Green.

The Patriots need to unleash their pass rush against the Chargers. Outside linebackers Akeem Ayers and Rob Ninkovich may have Chandler Jones back to boost the outside pass rush and make Rivers uncomfortable. After the restraint shown in the pass rush against the mobile Aaron Rodgers last week in Green Bay, the Patriots front seven have to be licking their chops to get after the stationary Rivers and the weak Chargers offensive line.

PREDICTION:

Oct 26, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots fans celebrate from the stands during the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots won 51-23. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Despite it being a road game on the other side of the country a week after a hard-fought battle against the Packers, this is a game the Patriots should win. Despite all the playmakers on both teams on both sides of the ball, the game will come down to the mostly anonymous units in the trenches as the offensive and defensive lines slug it out. New England’s offensive line should be able to make room for whatever running back is in the backfield and give Brady time to find his targets downfield. Vince WIlfork and the New England front seven should be able to contain the revitalized Chargers rushing attack by overwhelming an overmatched Chargers offensive line. In contrast to last week’s conservative pass approach, expect the Patriots to bring pressure and exploit the Chargers issues with pass blocking to slow the explosive San Diego offense.

If New England gets out to an early lead this one could get ugly for the home team. Either way, the Patriots should be flying home to New England happy. I predict the Patriots to move the ball at will against the Chargers and the New England defense to make some big plays and create game-changing turnovers. I see it as a 42 to 23 victory for the Patriots as they keep pace with the Broncos for the top spot in the AFC and ready for their stretch against the AFC East to close the regular season.