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The Patriots' Super Bowl odds just skyrocketed (and the NFL is already fuming)

The road through the AFC just opened up in a big way.
Ryan O'Leary
Ryan O'Leary

Musket Fire

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye / Winslow Townson/GettyImages

The New England Patriots’ biggest critics have been screaming all season long about their historically easy road to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.

And if the Patriots are able to win Sunday’s showdown with the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium to reach the AFC Championship Game, the focal point of the next week just got painfully obvious.

What started as a great day for the NFL — with the Denver Broncos outlasting the Buffalo Bills, 33-30, in a tense, back-and-forth, overtime thriller — took a stunning turn for the worse when Sean Payton hit the postgame podium. Broncos fans were still celebrating when Payton broke the news that starting quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury on one of their team's final plays of the game, and is out for the remainder of the playoffs.

The Patriots now enter Sunday’s matchup knowing that they must go through Denver — and not Josh Allen — to reach the Super Bowl. But if they do earn their trip to Mile High, the QB matchup will be Drake Maye vs. Broncos backup Jarrett Stidham, a failed fourth-round draft pick of New England back in 2019.

The Patriots’ critics won’t handle what just happened to their playoff path

Again, this was a bad result for the NFL, and especially football fans in Denver and beyond. The Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and no one wants to see them fight on for a Super Berth next week without Nix on the field.

This is also a gut-punch for Patriots fans, who’ve been listening to talk about “The Schedule” all year and have been eager to see their team go out and prove it in January. 

There’s no fighting this one, though. After battering Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers into submission on wild-card weekend, the Patriots will now have to beat C.J. Stroud and Stidham to reach Super Bowl LX.

Stidham has only taken four snaps this season, and they were all back in Week 8 in an end-of-game, knee-down situation. He was drafted by the Patriots during the Bill Belichick regime but only lasted two seasons, with Belichick trading him to the Raiders in 2022 in exchange for a seventh-round draft pick.

Payton actually made Stidham a priority during his first free agency as head coach of the Broncos, signing him in 2023 to a two-year, $10 million contract as the backup to Russell Wilson. Stidham signed a two-year extension this year with about $7 million in guarantees, and Payton’s about to find out if the emergency QB he wanted behind Nix has what it takes to keep this year's run alive. 

Even with a full week to prepare, Stidham sends the Broncos from the clear AFC favorites, to underdogs. The skeptics are about to have a field day, but if Mike Vrabel and company can win what will now be their final home game of the 2025-26 season, the Patriots will officially be on destiny watch with a much more favorable trip to Denver on deck.

Ryan O'Leary

Ryan O'Leary

Ryan O'Leary has been covering the Patriots since 2020, when he began hosting the Patriots Wire Podcast for USA TODAY Sports Media Group. He's been a contributing writer and assistant editor for Musket Fire since August 2025. Ryan studied journalism at the University of New Hampshire and started his career covering local high school and college sports. He then transitioned out of the newsroom and into the live events space as a content manager and emcee for USA TODAY Ventures. Ryan's work has been featured on USA TODAY Sports and The Sporting News. He's also the current site expert for FanSided's Dawg Pound Daily, covering the Cleveland Browns (a role that has his Ohioan wife fired up). His NFL fandom has and always will lie with the Patriots, though, the team that's had him hooked since Desmond Howard and the Packers left him sobbing on the couch as a 10-year-old after Super Bowl XXXI. Thankfully, that pain subsided after consuming every snap of the greatest dynasty in professional sports history.