Even though the New England Patriots have the chance to take a franchise quarterback with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, there is speculation about the team potentially moving down. After all, this is the team that has made trading down a hobby and even though Bill Belichick is gone, that DNA may still exist.
If the Patriots are going to move off the third overall pick then it is going to have to take a massive trade package. Even if you are on team trade-down, it is undeniable that the Pats' biggest need is at quarterback and if the team is trading away the chance to draft a top-tier prospect it better be for good reason.
There are quite a few quarterback-hungry teams that could trade a king's ransom for the third overall pick. If the Patriots are getting less than these proposed trade packages then the answer simply has to be no.
Trade packages Patriots can receive for 3rd overall pick:
1. Patriots receive 11th pick, 23rd pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 second-round pick from Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are the team that everyone is circling to trade up in the 2024 NFL Draft. There has been real speculation about the Vikings loving J.J. McCarthy and if the team wants to leap-frog other quarterback-hungry teams then trading for the third pick is the way to go.
Unless the Patriots have another team that is explicitly interested in McCarthy, though, the Vikings will probably wait. If Minnesota can trade for the fourth or fifth pick at a cheaper cost to take McCarthy then that will be in the team's best interest.
New England likely needs a team that is interested in Jayden Daniels to make the leap to the third pick. So while this deal with the Vikings is certainly possible, there might be more realistic options out there.
2. Patriots receive 13th pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 first-round pick, 2026 third-round pick from Las Vegas Raiders
This package is essentially the same trade that the San Francisco 49ers made back in 2021 to move up to the third overall pick to take Trey Lance. San Francisco sent the 12th pick, two future first-round picks and a future third-round pick to the Miami Dolphins in the deal.
This is the exact same return for a jump that is nearly identical. The only difference is that the Patriots would be moving down 10 spots instead of nine but in this specific draft class, that one extra spot likely doesn't make much of a difference.
The Raiders are also a great team for the Patriots to try and do business with as those future first-round picks have the potential to be really bad. Vegas hasn't been the most well-run team in recent years, and the Pats have the real potential to get at least one top-10 pick between those two.
Additionally, there appears to be some mutual interest between Daniels and the organization. With a new general manager in Tom Telesco and an owner who is hungry to win, the odds of the Raiders taking a big swing like this certainly are higher than other teams.
This package does not give the Patriots another first-round pick in this year's draft, but it has the potential to bring much more value over the length of the deal than the Minnesota trade.
3. Patriots receive 6th pick, 47th pick, 2025 first-round pick from New York Giants
The New York Giants are the sleeper team in the 2024 NFL Draft that fans should be keeping an eye on. There is no clarity at the quarterback position with Daniel Jones and this is a team that should be desperate to find the next franchise guy that can save some jobs.
If the Giants are very high on a particular quarterback (like Daniels) and he is available with the third pick then they should be very interested in moving up. There is a lot of risk involved in sticking with the sixth overall pick, especially as both the Cardinals and Chargers could trade down.
If either of those teams trades down and a quarterback is selected (assuming the Pats also take a quarterback) then the Giants are going to get the fifth choice of QB with the sixth pick. At that point, it would not really even be worth it to take a quarterback and the team would be putting faith in either Jones or a second-rounder.
Thus, the Giants could look to leapfrog all of those teams and go straight to the third pick to have their choice of quarterback. Meanwhile, the Patriots would still get a decent return (a second-round pick and a first-round pick next year) for only moving back three spots.
That seems like a lot to move up three spots but there is a quarterback tax that happens in these deals. Back in 2018, the New York Jets traded three second-round picks to move from six to three for Sam Darnold. This return would be slightly more than that given the circumstances.
This would be a genius move for the Pats if the team is high on McCarthy and doesn't think the Cardinals or Chargers trade down. There is a world in which the Pats can pick up the extra assets and still end up with the quarterback they like the most.
It might be the most unforeseen of these potential packages but it might just be the best for New England.