Why I'm Not So Thrilled with the Patriots 2023 Draft
In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Patriots select (drum roll please): a bunch of defenders, a horde of special teams guys—punter, kicker, returner; a few interior offensive lineman; and a couple offensive options very late in the draft.
Wow!! Pardon me while take a few moments to catch my breath. The Pats could have made major gains for an offense that ranked 26th in the AFC in average yards per game in 2022 but, instead, chose to try to strengthen the defense, apparently giving up on the idea that they can score enough points to keep up with Allen, Rodgers, and Tagovailoa. Rather than adding dynamic playmakers, they picked special teamers, apparently to try to erase those bad kickoff return memories from 2022.
Rather than draft offensive tackles, they chose interior offensive lineman, with at least two of those considered reaches by most draft analysts. For many Pats’ fans who dreamed of seeing a Flowers, a Downs, a Dell, or a Kincaid in a Patriots uniform, this draft was yet another difficult pill to swallow. Those players will light up the field for some other team. Although the Pats got potential significant contributors on defense and special teams, they did not fill important needs on offense: wide receiver, offensive tackle, and tight end. More important, this 2023 NFL draft did nothing to change the dynamics of the AFC East. The Pats are still left chasing the Bills and perhaps the Dolphins and Jets as well.
Round 1 - 17th overall pick
Pick: Christian Gonzales, CB, Oregon.
Grade: B+
Alternate Picks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State; Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College.
The Patriots could have gotten the best WR in the draft and instead opted to take the 3rd CB off the board. Regardless of how shocked NFL draft analysts were by Gonzalez’s fall out of the top 10, his draft position shows how NFL general managers regard his true value. He was clearly not seen as the top 10 talent that Devon Witherspoon was.
Imagining that the Pats got lucky at 17 because teams selecting earlier “forgot” Gonzales was still on the board is understandably optimistic, but still wishful, thinking. On the contrary, the team picking right before them chose a different CB, who actually grabbed many more career interceptions (14 to 4) in college than Gonzalez.
Gonzalez may have a great career but he was still drafted more on his undeniable athleticism and potential than production. Kudos to the Patriots if they turn out to be right.
With Smith-Njigba, the Patriots would have gotten the best wideout in the draft who would have provided immediate improvement to the offense and settled their WR1 position, which has been nothing but problematic in recent years. Flowers would have not only improved the offense but simply dazzled the fans in Gillette Stadium for years to come.
Round 2 - 46th overall pick
Pick: Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech.
Grade: B
Alternate Picks: Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota State; Cam Smith, DB, South Carolina.
White had decent production at Georgia Tech in 2022 with 7.5 sacks and 54 tackles but is still considered by many to be a work in progress, given his limited experience at the Edge position. With Judon and Uche on board, the Pats did not have a true need for an Edge defender. They couldn’t resist taking one anyway--not surprising given the favor Belichick shows for defenders.
With Mauch, the Pats would have gotten a colorful mauler/brawler, reminiscent of the great Logan Mankins—he would have made a terrific Patriot and been a lot of fun to watch. Alternatively, had the Pats satisfied their need for a top WR in Round 1, they could have also gotten an excellent corner in Round 2, such as Cam Smith out of South Carolina--the 5th-rated CB by Drafttek.com and 6th rated CB by Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Round 3 - 76th overall pick
Pick: Marte Mapu, LB/S, Sacramento State
Grade: C-
Alternate Picks: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M; Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State.
Is Mapu a safety or a linebacker? Will he be playing a new position called safety/linebacker? What, exactly, is the value of that? Why not just draft a traditional safety to replace McCourty if that was the goal? Does anyone actually know what the goal was here?
Only one of the Belichicks can apparently these questions since I’ve seen nothing else except speculation. Mapu is still an excellent athlete, and I had selected him in many of my own mock drafts: in Round 6, where I thought he had great value.
Achane has standout speed (4.32 40-yard dash time at the Combine) and had 36 receptions in 2022 for the Aggies. He would have given the Pats a chance to spell Rhamondre Stephenson with a true 3rd-down back who could operate in the tradition of Kevin Faulk and James White, a model that worked well for the Pats for many years.
Or why not fill a need and select a tight end like Tucker Craft here?
Matt Groh, Patriots Director of Player Personnel, explained that some of the tight ends favored by the Patriots went off the board very quickly: “There were some guys up top. There was some good depth in the middle of the draft and those players came off really, really fast.“
Despite those comments, there were TE options for the Pats in this draft and Tucker Kraft, ranked 6th among TEs by many draft analysts, including Mel Kiper and Walter Football, represented a great option here.
Round 4 picks
Pick: Jake Andrews, C, Troy State
Grade: C
Alternate Picks: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State; Carter Warren, OT, Pittsburgh.
Andrews narrowly beats out Sidy Sow for the Pats Annual Offensive Lineman Reach Award. Andrews received a grade of 5.89 from nfl.com, which equates to “traits or talent to be above average backup.” Pats apparently drafted him in Round 4 based on the theory that “anyone named Andrews” is bound to be a great center. Okay, I actually like Andrews, just not where they picked him. They had bigger needs in Round 4 than center.
At 6’8” tall and weighing in at 374 pounds, Jones is a massive man who also happened to also be the 7th-ranked offensive tackle by Walter Football in a draft in which five offensive tackles were selected in the first round. It appears that NFL GMs place a greater value on offensive tackles than centers.
Warren, at 6’5” tall and 311 pounds, was not rated nearly as high as Jones but wouldn’t have given the Pats another decent option at tackle.
Pick: Chad Ryland, K, Maryland.
Grade: D+
Alternate Picks: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati; Charlie Jones, WR, Purdue.
The Pats were evidently flustered by the “kicker run” that occurred in Round 3 when Jake Moody was selected, but they still didn’t need to draft a kicker in Round 4 and definitely didn’t need to trade up to get one. Neither was Ryland the only option.
As an alternative strategy, how about waiting until the Round 6 or 7 to see who was available? If Ryland was gone, they could have selected Christopher Dunn from North Carolina State or Gavin Baechle from UTEP, or signed one of them as free agents. Moody and Ryland were not the only kickers available of NFL quality.
This would have been a great spot to select a slot receiver—perhaps the next Brown, Welker, or Edelman. Tyler Scott was a highly rated slot receiver with 54 receptions and 9 touchdowns for the Bearcats in 2022. Jones led the NCAA with 110 receptions in 2022 and ran a 4.43 40 at the NFL Combine. Either would have been a great option.
Pick: Sidy Sow, OL, Eastern Michigan.
Grade: C
Alternate Picks: Warren McClendon, OT, Georgia; Braeden Daniels, G, Utah.
Sow was the 18th-ranked offensive guard by Drafttek.com and is another certified reach. Reportedly, Sow has limited experience at tackle and the Pats might want him to play tackle. Let’s see, an athletic guard who we can make into a tackle? Wasn’t this the story we heard with Isaiah Wynn?
My solution to the need for tackles is to draft tackles. Doesn’t that make the evaluation easier? Maybe I am missing something here or maybe someone else is.
McClendon was the 14th-ranked offensive tackle by Drafttek.com and, if guard was the preference, Daniels was the 10th-ranked offensive guard by Walter Football. Either would have been a good option.
Round 5 - 144th overall pick
Pick: Atonio Mafi, G, UCLA.
Grade: B+
Alternate Pick: Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State.
Mafi is the most solid offensive lineman pick by the Patriots, although, in case no one noticed, he is another guard. I think Mafi will be very good, but there is a limit to how many guards you can have on the team.
Robinson is a true safety unlike the hybrid safety/linebacker the Pats actually drafted in Round 3. Robinson has 4.59 speed in the 40-yard dash and was rated as the 6th-ranked safety by PFF. He would have been a great value in Round 5.
Round 6 picks
Pick: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
Grade: C-
Alternate Pick: Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan State.
Boutte got very mixed reviews from scouts and ran only a 4.5 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine. Boutte's best season was as a freshman in 2021; his average yards per catch dipped significantly from 16.33 in 2020 to 11.21 in 2022.
PFF’s 2023 NFL POSTdraft guide says of Boutte: “There are some games where he looks like an NFL star and others where he looks completely disinterested.” It's not clear if Boutte will be a good fit in Foxboro given his inconsistent production, history of ankle injuries, and past issues with the LSU coaching staff.
I'll select Baringer instead of Boutte here as, clearly, no team can ever have enough special teams guys. That’s my concession to special teams in this draft.
Pick: Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan State.
Grade: B-
Alternate Pick: Keondre Coburn, DL, Texas.
I can’t give the Baringer pick a bad grade since I selected him a few spots earlier. Passing on Boutte and selecting Baringer with the previous pick would have given the Pats a chance to add a stout defensive tackle here to shore up the middle of their defensive line. NFL Analyst Lance Zierlein of nfl.com said of Keondre Coburn: “Coburn’s blend of girth, power and agility could be coveted by teams looking for help along the interior.”
Pick: Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty.
Grade: A
Alternate Pick: Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion.
I love Douglas (see later selection) but selecting a TE here, if not earlier, would have given the Pats at least a developmental option, given both Mike Gesecki and Hunter Henry are eligible for unrestricted free agency after the 2023 season.
Zach Kuntz would have been a low-risk pick in Round 6 with a potentially high return. He ran a 4.55 40 at the NFL combine—the second fastest time for a tight end. He may not be a finished product yet, but how is a fast 6-foot 7-inch TE with good receiving skills not the “right fit” for the Patriots? Even in the 6th-round? Can he not be taught to block?
Pick: Amer Speed, CB Michigan State
Grade: D
Alternate Picks: Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty; Mekhi Garner, CB, LSU.
Amer Speed is a big corner and, yes, is appropriately named with a 4.33 40-yard dash time to his credit. Given that Draftek.com ranked Speed as its 49th best CB and PFF graded this pick as “below average”--no one should have high expectations for this pick.
I love Douglas’ game. If you can’t catch someone, you can’t tackle him. I think he’s one 6th-rounder with a chance to make a big impact.
Mekhi Garner has excellent size at 6’2” tall and 212 pounds and was the 10th-ranked CB by drafttek.com and the 17th-ranked CB by Walter Football. He signed with the Philadelphia Eagles as an undrafted free agent.
Round 7 picks
Pick: Isaiah Bolden, CB, Jackson State.
Grade: C
Alternate Pick: Alex Forsyth, C, Oregon.
Isaiah Bolden has good size (6’2” 205 lbs.) and speed (4.31 40-yard dash time) and can return kicks. So why didn’t he get drafted earlier? Bolden was the 25th ranked CB on Drafttek.com and is still a project. He is one more player who is going to have to make the team by contributing on special teams.
I watched game highlights of Oregon to see how Christian Gonzales fared and really noticed the excellent job Alex Forsyth did blocking up on offensive plays. I never saw him get beat or look out of position. It’s disappointing the Pats didn’t take advantage of what should have been inside knowledge from new coach Adrian Klemm about Forsyth.
Eric Edholm, NFL analyst for nfl.com, commented: “Forsyth was mostly a center in college but could be a three-position backup inside. He's known for elite intangibles and a gritty playing style.” Sounds like a great Patriot to me: smart, tough, and dependable.