Just like the Great Dying put paid to the dinosaurs (although Harrison Butker somehow survived), TB12’s departure ended the Patriots’ domination of the AFC East.
Since 2000, the Patriots have won the AFC East title 17 times, but the Bills have finished champions each of the last four years. Could that be about to change?
Well, the first thing to say is that AFC East teams have been beating up on each other for over a decade now, so it won’t be a surprise if a different team wins. The last AFC East team to go undefeated against their divisional opponents was the Bills in 2020.
But before that, it hadn’t happened since 2012, when the Patriots achieved the feat!
Projecting AFC East records for the 2024 season
Dolphins record: 11-6
No team in the league scored more touchdowns than the Dolphins did in 2023; they finished the regular season tied with the 49ers, having broken the plane 61 times! Only the Cowboys scored more points in the regular season than Miami.
But, despite trading for Jalen Ramsey (five months after trading for Bradley Chubb), their defense was an issue. Under Vic Fangio, they allowed an average of 23 points per game.
If there’s one thing to admire about Mike McDaniel, it is that he learns his lessons quickly. He replaced Fangio with former Ravens defensive line (and assistant head) coach Anthony Weaver. Weaver's Ravens defense led the league with 60 sacks in 2023, four more than the Dolphins managed.
To assist Weaver with his transition, the Dolphins signed 11 new defensive players, including two safeties from the Bills and four defensive tackles.
In case that wasn’t enough, they then drafted Chop Robinson and Mohamed Kamara, who recorded the second and third-fastest 40-yard times in the 2023 EDGE class! That’s so Miami. They also acquired Grayson Murphy and Leonard Payne Jr. as undrafted free agents. Between them, those two recorded 34 sacks during their college careers.
The other areas in which the Dolphins had room for improvement in 2023 were punt and kick returns. They addressed that in the draft, too, selecting Malik Washington from UVA and Tahj Washington from USC. Malik averaged 19.5 yards per return in Virginia last year, and the last time Tahj returned kicks, as a junior, he averaged 25 yards per kick!
They could both be useful on offense. But with Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and De’Von Achane already on the roster, Miami Gardens has no shortage of offensive talent.
Even though the offense didn’t need an upgrade, if you’re not moving forward, you’re going backward, right? So, Miami bought in Jody Fortson, Jonnu Smith, and Odell Beckham Jr., too. They’re going all in on 2024.
In 2023, the Dolphins raced to a 9-3 record in the first 13 weeks of the season, but they tailed off dramatically in December. They only won two of their final six games. The 2024 schedule gives them another favorable start, with three home games in the first month of the season.
That means they have three road games in the last five weeks of the season, but they will have a mini-bye before playing the Jets in Week 14.
The Dolphins didn’t manage to hold off the Bills' challenge in 2023, but if they can win the division and secure home-field advantage during the playoffs, they could be in line for a deep run in the postseason.
Bills record: 10-7
A strong finish to the 2023 season saw the Bills win the division. They reached their Week 13 bye with a 6-6 record and then won six games on the bounce. Only the eventual Super Bowl winners, the Chiefs, could stop them.
Like Miami and New England, the Bills will have a new defensive coordinator in 2024 as Bobby Babich steps up from his job as linebackers coach. He’s been in western New York since 2017, though, so it should be a pretty simple transition. Joe Brady will continue where he left off in 2023 as the offensive coordinator, but he’ll have to come up with a better plan than run it, run it, and then run it some more.
A minor cap crunch meant the Bills weren’t as proactive in free agency as their Miami counterparts. Brandon Beane did sign in 19 newbies. But when 28 players left, and the new faces are the likes of Chase Claypool and Mitchell Trubisky, it’s difficult to say they have improved their talent pool. In all, they brought in nine new wide receivers (although they have since released Quintez Cephus). After seven departed, they have leaned into rebuilding their defensive front, bringing in nine new defensive linemen.
The Bills didn’t have a first-round draft pick, having traded away their 28th and 32nd picks. They acquired the 33rd pick from the Panthers to draft wide receiver Keon Coleman. Coleman averaged 13.1 yards per reception in college (Javon Baker averaged 17.5).
But what Coleman lacks in consistency he makes up for with highlight reel plays. He’s 6 feet 4 inches tall, too, so he’ll bring the red zone threat that left when Stef Diggs agitated his way to Houston. After signing 14 undrafted free agents and inviting 12 more to minicamp, there will be a youthful feel to the 2024 Bills.
The football gods shone brightly on them when they gave them a cupcake game to begin the season, though. They host a Cardinals team that will also have many new faces trying to bed in (as many as 26). But they come back to earth hard in Week 2 when they have to travel to Miami.
The last time the Bills visited Hard Rock Stadium in September, four players left the game with what was described as “heat illness.” That game was played later in September, too! The Bills’ bye comes in Week 12 and is followed by the toughest part of the schedule. They play at home against the 49ers and then travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams.
They will follow that game up with a trip to Detroit. They end the regular season with three divisional games, two against New England and at home against the Jets. It’s going to be a brutal culmination of a testing season.
Jets record: 9-8
Many question marks are hanging over the Jets again in 2024. Under Robert Saleh, it seems incredibly likely that they will have one of the strongest defenses in the league again. Nathaniel Hackett’s offense, on the other hand, will remain a mystery until the season begins.
After the MetLife turf monster saw off Aaron Rodgers after just four snaps in the 2023 season, the Jets' campaign was thrown into turmoil. A fleeting glimpse at their 2024 depth chart suggests that should anything happen to their soon-to-be 41-year-old quarterback, they’ll have to rely on Tyrod Taylor to guide them to the playoffs this time out.
“T-Mobile,” as he likes to be called, hasn’t seen the postseason since 2017, so Gang Green has crossed their fingers and toes for Pat McAfee’s BFF.
The Jets did make one of the best picks at the 2024 draft when they snagged Olu Fashanu from Penn State. But they had already signed Tyron Smith to play left tackle. The 33-year-old former Cowboy could be as much of an injury concern as Rodgers, especially on the treacherous MetLife field.
In total, the Jets brought in five new faces during free agency, but (according to Spotrac) they also bolstered their ranks with 23 undrafted free agents! After trading away 14 draft picks, they only selected seven players in Detroit.
They drafted someone who can help Garrett Wilson in the passing game in Malachi Corley. Western Kentucky product Corley racked up 3,127 total offensive yards during his college career and scored 22 touchdowns in his last two seasons!
They also acquired some extra depth for the run game in the shape of Braelon Allen. That should help them balance their offense after they only ran the ball 37% of the time in 2023! Although playing from behind so often didn't help that either.
That strangeness, combined with their willingness to run it back with the same coaching team, who have only won 18 games since 2021, and their reliance on expensive veteran players, suggests the Jets' front office is a den of chaos.
In 2023, the Jets followed up a three-game losing streak with a five-game losing streak four weeks later. They then proceeded to alternate wins and losses for the final five weeks of the season. The 2023 Jets were a mirror image of the 2023 Patriots, as their offensive superstar’s early injury put the kibosh on their hopes.
They’re bound to improve in 2024 unless something equally miserable happens. But the division figures to be absolutely brutal. If they’re lucky, they could contend for a Wildcard spot, but if they’re not, they’ll be just as inconsistent on the field as in the front office.
Patriots record: 6-9
Well, what can you say? There has been a huge change in Foxborough. Was it the correct decision? Only time will tell. But briefly reviewing the Patriots' 2023 season, it seems like the head coach was fired due to the inconceivable number of injuries they suffered.
Robert Kraft was happy to suffer the slings and arrows of Bill Belichick’s tenure while the team was making the playoffs, but with 17 different players hitting IR throughout the season (including Riley Reiff, who was supposed to fix the offensive line) that wasn’t going to happen in 2023.
Ownership decided they would rather deal with a friendly face instead of a curmudgeonly yet proven winner. This friendly face was only the co-defensive coordinator last year. However (and nobody is sure how much influence Steve Belichick, Bill Belichick, or Mayo had on the 2023 defense), so they bought in someone with head coaching experience to help. Ben McAdoo is a Senior offensive assistant and will presumably act as a sounding board for Mayo.
So far, it seems like there’s been a bit of a player's revolution around the Patriots since Mayo took over, and that’s fine, but are these the players you want running things? Without Matt Slater on the playing roster, there are now more multiple Super Bowl winners on the coaching staff (Slater, Dont'a Hightower, and Troy Brown) than on the playing staff (David Andrews and Joe Cardona).
Mayo and McAdoo aren’t the only new faces on the coaching team. Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator, and he seems to be Bill O’Brien 2.0. Van Pelt has already said he believes you need to establish the run to have a successful offense.
We all saw what happens when you can’t establish the run last season. Former Samford Bulldogs wide receiver DeMarcus Covington takes over as the Patriots defensive coordinator, and Jeremy Springer arrives from the Rams to run the special team's unit.
It’s not just the coaching team that has been freshened up, though. Although the front office had a somewhat lackluster free agency period, signing players in positions where they already had players and a 31-year-old Jacoby Brissett, they had a more successful draft.
Selecting two exciting quarterbacks and two interesting receivers. They also acquired the steal of the draft when tight end (come H-back) Jaheim Bell fell to them in the seventh round. Bell believes he can follow in Gronk’s footsteps.
In 2023, the Patriots went winless throughout November but managed to win road games against the Steelers and Broncos in December. That highlights the most frustrating thing for fans: the inconsistency. The team didn’t lose more than five consecutive games but followed up every victory with at least one comprehensive defeat.
Fate dealt the Patriots a crummy hand when it decided the 2024 schedule. There are three road games in the first four weeks, and two are against Super Bowl hopefuls in the shape of the Bengals and 49ers. Then there’s a trip to London, where they will nominally be the road team but will have more support than the Jaguars.
The bye doesn’t come until Week 14 in early December, when the roster is sure to be in pieces. They end the season with the two divisional games against the Bills, a snow-bird trip to Arizona, and they will host the Chargers, who will be even more strung-out than the Patriots by then.
The Patriots' front office seems to have decided to fix things that didn’t need fixing while doing nothing to address their biggest issues. They intend to play a right tackle at left tackle because they didn’t acquire a specialist left tackle during the offseason and haven’t signed another specialist pass rusher to help out Matt Judon (or, heaven forbid, pick up the slack if the soon-to-be 32-year-old gets injured again).
It will be exciting to watch the rookies play, but with so much inexperience on both the coaching team and roster, it’ll be tricky for them to string together many wins again this year.